It is likely to be another rough week of data for the UK, US and Eurozone, with special focus on Thursday’s flash PMIs.
UK: How bad will April’s flash PMIs be?
It’s a busy week for UK data, though only so of it will be applicable to the current situation.
Tuesday brings the monthly jobs report, but with the wage growth and unemployment rate both covering February – useful for illustrating the state of the UK economy pre-lockdown, but maybe not much else. The claimant count change, however, covers March, meaning it could start to show the same spike in jobless claims seen over the last 4 weeks in the US.
March’s inflation reading then arrives on Thursday, and given a recent ONS survey showing the cost of a basket of basic goods, including tinned beans and toilet roll, had risen 4.4% in the weeks after the lockdown began, it could be interesting.
It is worth mentioning that it will be those figures from April, not March, that show the full brunt of the pandemic in the UK. That’s why Thursday’s flash manufacturing and services PMIs are so important. For reference, in March the former sank to 47.8, with the latter falling all the way to 34.5. Thursday also sees last month’s retail sales reading.
UK: Stocks to Watch
As for the week’s corporate calendar, Associated British Foods update on Tuesday, Boohoo – which has kept its warehouses open during the lockdown – reports on Wednesday, with Unilever posting its Q1 figures on Thursday.
US: Jobless claims on Thursday
Like elsewhere, Thursday is the week’s data-biggie in the US. With 22 million people made unemployed in the space of 4 weeks, the markets will be hoping that the number of jobless claims slows down (even if a multi-million reading is still likely).
Meanwhile, for the flash Markit manufacturing and services PMIs, March’s 48.5 and 39.8 are the numbers to beat respectively.
Elsewhere the existing home sales arrive on Tuesday, with new homes sales on Thursday and revised UoM consumer sentiment and durable goods orders on Friday.
Any further word on Gilead’s Covid-19 remdesivir trial may also be important to the state of play as the week goes on, given the gains sparked by new regarding the drug last Thursday and Friday.
US: Stocks to Watch
In terms of earnings, the week’s highlight is easily Netflix. The streaming giant posts its first quarter figures on Tuesday, and is expecting a 7% rise in net subscribers – though that forecast came before the pandemic struck, so investors may be disappointed if the actual number isn’t higher. Revenue, meanwhile, is set to jump 26.1% to $5.7 billion, with a massive 113% surge in earnings to $1.62 per share.
Beyond Thursday’s flash PMIs for Germany, France and the region as a whole, the Eurozone also sees current account data on Monday, ZEW economic sentiment readings on Tuesday, consumer confidence figures on Wednesday, and the German Ifo business climate number on Friday.
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