It is a pretty mad week for the markets, with Mark Carney’s final meeting as BoE chief, a statement from the Fed, Apple and Amazon earnings, and the UK’s exit from the EU.
UK: Brexit and the Bank of England rate vote
It may be largely symbolic at this point, but Friday 31st January 2020 will see the UK withdraw from the EU, around 3 years, 7 months and 1 week on from the original Brexit referendum.
Though there is plenty of anxiety for the pound to look forward to in the coming months, as Boris Johnson’s government starts to chase down trade deals, it will be interesting to see whether or not the currency pays much attention to the week’s formalities.
Especially since sterling’s attentions are likely going to be dominated by Thursday’s Bank of England rate vote. A few better than expected figures from the UK – namely the CBI industrial order expectations reading and the flash manufacturing and services PMIs – have eased the pressure on the bank to cut interest rates, though a hold this month may be more of a delay than anything else. Regardless the pound is no doubt going to be anxious in the run-up to Mark Carney’s final meeting as BoE chief.
Beyond that there’s the CBI realised sales on Tuesday, alongside the net lending to individuals number on Thursday.
As for the FTSE, though much of its week will be defined by its usually antagonistic relationship with the pound, it may also remain preoccupied with the progress of the coronavirus outbreak. There’s also China’s manufacturing and services PMIs early on Friday morning – the kind of data that can be a big mover for the index’s commodity sector.
US: Earnings season in full swing
There’s plenty of data for the Dow Jones to get its teeth into this week, including the CB consumer confidence figure on Tuesday, the advance Q4 GDP reading on Thursday and the core PCE price index number on Friday.
There’s also the latest Federal Reserve statement on Wednesday evening. It could be a quiet one after 2019’s rate cutting action; however, any hints as to the bank’s future plans are always welcome.
US: Stocks to Watch
Perhaps the biggest aspect of the US week is its corporate calendar. It is chock full of big hitters, including Apple, eBay and Starbucks on Tuesday; Facebook, Boeing, Visa, McDonald’s, Tesla and General Electric on Wednesday; and Microsoft, Amazon and Verizon on Thursday.
Eurozone: Germany and the Coronavirus
Like the US and UK, the Eurozone is going to be hugely interested in how the coronavirus spreads. On top of that, the region is looking at a Germany dominated week, from the Ifo business climate number on Monday, to the Gfk consumer climate figures on Wednesday and the inflation data on Thursday. Then, on Friday, the focus expands to include French inflation and Spanish and Italian growth, alongside the region-wide inflation and GDP readings.
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