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The UK, US and the Eurozone in the week ahead


In a rare sight the markets are treated to a nonfarm Thursday, rather than Friday, this week due to Independence Day.

US: Jobs numbers on Thursday

Investors can’t quite seem to make up their mind about an impending covid-19 second wave in the US (or, more accurately, the acceleration of the initial, uncontrolled outbreak). Sometimes it is all they can think about, causing sharp losses across the board; at other moments, investors manage to swallow that bitter pill and get on with focusing on other, potentially more positive matters.

Regardless of how the markets feel about it, the reality is that the situation in the US – and, indeed, much of the globe – is becoming increasingly grim, with the country recently seeing a record one-day increase in the number of cases. It has forced states and businesses alike to abandon certain reopening plans, and will likely only exacerbate the unemployment crisis.

Talking of jobs, it’s a nonfarm Thursday – not Friday – this week, meaning the report will come alongside the usual jobless claims reading, which is persistently lingering around the 1.5 million mark.

May’s update saw the latest astonishing figure of the pandemic era, as more than 2.5 million jobs were created across the month. That’s so much better than the 7.75 million loss forecast, and April’s stomach-churning 20.7 million wipe-out, it was almost unbelievable.

It also means that investors won’t just be interested in how June stacked up, but whether or not May’s nonfarm number has undergone a significant revision.

Similarly, the unemployment rate is one to watch, with the May reading of 13.3% both vastly undershooting the 19.4% expected, and the 14.7% seen the month prior.

In the run-up to that jobs-heavy Thursday session, there’s the pending home sales number on Monday, while on Tuesday the Chicago PMI and consumer confidence figures come alongside the latest testimony from Fed chair Jerome Powell.

Wednesday, meanwhile, sees the ADP nonfarm employment change reading, the Markit and ISM manufacturing PMIs and, in the evening, the most recent Fed meeting minutes, which could prove to be illustrative about what the central bank has planned.

UK: Stimulus news

Likely riding the same second wave highs and lows as the rest of the markets, the FTSE and pound may also be on the lookout for any more stimulus news from Chancellor Rishi Sunak, after he stated that he will be ‘outlining further things in the coming weeks’.

As for the economic calendar, mortgage approvals, net lending to individuals and an appearance from Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey at the Climate Financial Risk Forum are the highlights on Monday.

On Tuesday the Chinese manufacturing and services PMIs will set the scene early on, before the release of the UK’s final first quarter GDP reading.

Wednesday then sees the final manufacturing PMI, after the flash version showed the sector returning to growth, with the Chinese Caixin services PMI and the UK’s final Markit services PMI rounding things out on Friday.

UK: Stocks to Watch

In terms of the corporate calendar, the big reporters are Sainsbury’s on Wednesday, DS Smith on Thursday and Fuller Smith & Turner on Friday.

Eurozone: Inflation data

After a slow Monday there’s Eurozone-wide inflation data on Tuesday, a round of final manufacturing PMIs and the German unemployment change reading on Wednesday, the region-wide unemployment rate on Thursday, and June’s final services PMIs on Friday.

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This article is brought to you in association with Spreadex. All opinions expressed in this article are from the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions of The Armchair Trader. You can find out more about Spreadex products and services here, or find more articles from Connor Campbell here.

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This article does not constitute investment advice. Make sure you do your own research or consult a professional advisor.

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