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The UK, US and the Eurozone in the week ahead

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Easter bedamned! The USA is getting out the nonfarm jobs numbers for March whether it is Good Friday or not!

US: Will it be a Good Friday for nonfarm payrolls?

With March shifting into April leading into Easter weekend, it could be a tricky week to navigate for the global markets, especially with the bond price wobbles that have started to greet month ends.

The US is busier than most this week, doing a 5-day shift instead of the 4-dayers over in Europe, culminating in Friday’s nonfarm jobs report.

The figures covering February were surprisingly stellar. Instead of the 197,000 forecast, 379,000 jobs were added across the month, the highest figure since those covering October.

The unemployment rate also beat estimates for the 11th month running, dropping from 6.3% to 6.2%.

The one outlier was average hourly earnings, which remained stubbornly low even as it rose from 0.1% to 0.2% (and that’s only thanks to a downwards revision to January’s data).

As for March, analysts are hoping that nonfarm number will keep climbing, with expectations of 500,000 new jobs added – if true, that would surpass February to become the best reading since October.

The unemployment rate is also expected to see another slight retreat, down to 6.1%, but with average hourly earnings stagnant at 0.2%.

Before Friday’s jobs data, there is the CB consumer confidence figure on Tuesday, the ADP nonfarm employment change, Chicago PMI and pending home sales numbers on Wednesday, and the final Markit and ISM manufacturing PMIs on Thursday.

UK: Growing covid-19 third wave fears

In a shortened week thanks to Good Friday, the FTSE is likely going to be dealing with the growing covid-19 third wave fears emanating from mainland Europe – especially since Boris Johnson said he has ‘no doubt’ that it will reach British shores.

Under the fog of that fearsome promise, the FTSE and pound are facing the mortgage approvals and net lending to individuals figures on Monday, the final Q4 GDP reading alongside the current account and revised business investment numbers on Wednesday, and the UK’s final manufacturing PMI for March on Thursday.

Eurozone

The Eurozone’s calendar echoes the UK’s in many ways, from a shortened week due to Easter, to the potential focus on the covid-19 third wave.

Other than that, it’s a fairly data-light week for the region, with inflation on Wednesday and its final manufacturing PMIs on Thursday.

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This article is brought to you in association with Spreadex. All opinions expressed in this article are from the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions of The Armchair Trader. You can find out more about Spreadex products and services here, or find more articles from Connor Campbell here.

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