via Barclays
UK labour market remained resilient
AUD a key underperformer yesterday on a weaker employment report
In France, former economy minister Macron announced his candidacy for the presidential election
- The UK labour market remained resilient, with ILO unemployment falling to 4.8%, the lowest level in eleven years. Core average weekly earnings also rose, to 2.4% 3m/y (from 2.3% 3m/y).
- Sterling barely moved on the news, with the currency continuing to appear much more sensitive to developments in the Brexit process than economic data.
- Barclays Research “…expect the referendum outcome to push up unemployment only gradually, likely at the turn of the year, and subsequently prevent upward wage growth pressures from building, thus forcing households to be more prudent and reduce private consumption by end-2017…
- AUDUSD neared two-month lows on the back of weaker-than-consensus Australian economic data and broad based USD strength
- Australia’s October employment report was weaker than consensus, but the details showed a strong gain in full time jobs. Indeed, total employment in October rose 9.8k (consensus: +16k; Barclays: +7k), while the September data were revised to show a significantly larger, 29k loss of jobs versus than the previously reported 9.8k decline.
- The French 2017 presidential election will be scrutinized intently and will be a key focus over the coming months. After the surprise election of Donald Trump in the US presidential election, investors are now properly considering the possibility that Marine Le Pen could become the next French president. The next main event is the second round of Les Republicains (LR) primaries on 27 November.
- Yesterday, former economy minister Macron announced his candidacy for the presidential election. He will likely not compete in any of the primary elections. His goal is to benefit from the rejection of traditional political parties, and to gather reformists from both the right and left to represent the main alternative to populism
Today’s currency rates:
GBPUSD 1.2465
GBPEUR 1.1629
EURUSD 1.0720
GBPAUD 1.6671
EURGBP 0.8599
