Aston Martin’s LON:AML road to redemption remains strewn with speed bumps. The luxury carmaker has once again been forced to recalibrate expectations amid a rough patch for the global automotive market — and for its own recovery narrative.
The company now expects wholesale volumes in 2025 to fall by a mid-to-high single-digit percentage from last year’s 6,030 units. Tariffs, softer demand in North America and Asia, and a slowing global economy have conspired to dampen sales. For a brand that sells scarcity as part of its appeal, scarcity in the wrong places is becoming an unfortunate habit.
The latest revision comes as adjusted EBIT is now forecast to slip below the lower end of market consensus — meaning worse than a £110 million loss — and management no longer expects positive free cash flow in the second half. In short: even the adjusted numbers are being adjusted down.
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Deliveries of the much-vaunted Valhalla, Aston Martin’s first hybrid supercar, will begin later than planned — about 150 cars in the fourth quarter. The delay is being framed as a “timing issue” linked to final engineering tweaks and homologation approval. Investors could be forgiven for recognising a familiar pattern. The promised halo of high-margin hypercars has yet to illuminate the bottom line.
Demand for Aston Martin cars is cooling
The group’s third-quarter performance provides little comfort. Around 1,430 wholesale units were delivered, below guidance and well short of last year’s 1,641. Demand weakened in key regions including North America, where tariffs continue to bite, and Greater China, where luxury spending has cooled. Retail volumes were flat, meaning stock levels remain balanced — if uninspiringly so.
Even so, management continues to wave the flag of optimism. The new Vanquish Volante began deliveries in the quarter, while the Vantage S and DBX S are due next. Media reviews have been strong; profitability less so.
To preserve liquidity, Aston Martin has pulled the handbrake on spending. Capital expenditure will fall to about £375 million, down from £400 million previously guided. SG&A costs should decline by around 10 per cent from last year’s £313 million. A sale of its stake in AMR GP, raising about £108 million, helped lift cash reserves to roughly £250 million. Yet that sum offers only limited headroom given the company’s recurring cash burn and investment needs.
The external environment gives little relief. Tariff uncertainty, China’s shifting tax regime for ultra-luxury cars, and the lingering risk of supply chain disruption — including from a recent cyber incident at a major UK manufacturer — all add friction. The new US tariff quota mechanism in particular complicates export forecasts and could weigh on quarterly planning into 2026.
Aston Martin to review costs and capital allocation
Management has launched a sweeping review of future costs, capital allocation, and even its product cycle plan, hinting at lower R&D investment over the next five years than the previously guided £2 billion. Prudence is necessary; investors, however, may note how frequently Aston Martin’s ambitions have been recalibrated in the rear-view mirror.
For now, Aston Martin insists 2026 will bring material improvements in profitability and free cash flow as Valhalla production ramps up and cost cuts take hold. The market, bruised by past promises, will want more than reassurance.
In the high-performance world of luxury motoring, timing and execution matter. For Aston Martin, both remain frustratingly out of gear.
