Can a stacked week for data draw attention away from investors’ trade war and election preoccupations?
UK: A busy economic calendar
With a month until the December 12th general election, it is going to be hard for anything non-political to turn the pound’s head this November.
Not that the economic calendar isn’t giving it a good go this week. After shrinking by 0.2% in the second quarter, investors get a first glimpse at the UK’s Q3 growth reading on Monday. That number is also joined by the monthly GDP figures, alongside the manufacturing and industrial production numbers.
Tuesday then sees the latest jobs report, with wage growth (including bonuses) last month slipping from 4.0% to 3.8% – will that slide continue this week?
Wednesday’s inflation reading, meanwhile, has been made all the more exciting by the fact 2 members of the Bank of England’s MPC voted to cut rates in November’s meeting.
Finally Thursday brings the retail sales data for October, a number that will become increasingly interesting as Christmas draws closer.
UK: Stocks to watch
On top of all that the UK sees a solid set of corporate updates. Dignity is on Monday, followed by Aveva, Electrocomponents, ITV and Vodafone on Tuesday, Talk Talk on Wednesday, and Burberry and FirstGroup on Thursday.
US: Investors looking for clarity
Despite a lot of positive noise – and some murmuring doubts – ‘phase one’ of the trade deal is yet to be agreed. Investors will be after clarity on whether or not tariffs will be rolled back, like China suggested; when the deal will be signed; and where exactly said signing will take place.
Beyond that the US data-week doesn’t really get started until Wednesday, when the inflation readings are joined by the first of a 2-day testimony from Fed chair, and Trump enemy, Jerome Powell.
Thursday is dominated by Chinese figures, with the state of the nation’s fixed asset investment, industrial production and retail sales readings having the potential to impact trading across the board.
Friday then ends with the US retail sales, Empire State manufacturing index and industrial production numbers.
Eurozone: Plenty for investors to digest
Keeping an eye on the US-China situation, the Eurozone also has plenty on its own plate this week. The Italian industrial production reading arrives on Monday, with the ZEW economic sentiment figures on Tuesday, and the region-wide industrial production number on Wednesday. Thursday sees the likely highlight in the preliminary German GDP reading, while Friday wraps things up with some inflation data.
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