The final full week of 2019 is predictably disrupted by the Christmas holidays.
UK: Can the Pound recover?
The pound has suffered a rather sharp wake-up call since the election. Giddy at the sight of a Tory majority, the currency shot up to multi-month, multi-year highs. And then the realities of what that meant set in, Boris Johnson making it clear he was chasing a hard – potentially even no-deal – Brexit.
That caused sterling to shed all of its post-exit poll growth, leaving it on a downward slope as the year beings to wrap up. Can it recover this week? Christmas is going to make that tricky, carving up the economic calendar until there’s not much left for investors to chew on.
US: Dow Jones free to keep rising?
With a ‘phase one’ trade deal agreed, the Dow Jones has been free to repeatedly hit fresh all-time highs. It’s hard to see anything really challenging the index’s position this week, unless that is a particularly Scrooge-like reversal from either the US or China regarding the agreement.
Whether it can substantially build on its current highs, meanwhile, may be dependent on how festive investors are feeling heading towards what is going to be an election-dominated 2020.
Like in the UK and US, the Eurozone’s week is contorted around Christmas. That will make the region even more in thrall to whatever the Dow Jones et al. are doing than normal.
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