- Key US inflation update
- US Retail Sales as well
- 2nd quarter earnings season kicks off
Monday 11th July
The week kicks off quite quietly with the release of some second order economic data including Japan’s Core Machinery Orders, Preliminary Machine Tool Orders and M2 Money Stock. From the Euro zone we have the German Wholesale Prices index, and Italian Retail Sales. Later in the day we expect speeches from the German Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel and FOMC member John Williams.
Tuesday 12th July
Overnight we get the latest update on the British Retail Consortium’s Retail Sales Monitor. Then there’s Japan’s Producer Prices Index (PPI), and Australia’s NAB Business Confidence Index. From the Euro zone the most significant data release is the German ZEW Economic Sentiment. In February this year, the survey plunged from a respectable reading of +54.3 to -39.3 following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. It has remained in negative territory ever since. In fact, it hasn’t fallen this deep and remained negative for so long since 2011 as the European debt crisis peaked. This is significant as the ZEW is an important measure of sentiment. It surveys 300 German institutional investors and analysts and asks them to rate the 6-month economic outlook for Germany. As such it’s a leading indicator of economic health. Later in the evening Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey will talk about the ‘economic landscape’ at an event in London. Tuesday’s main earnings reports come from PepsiCo, Sonoma Pharmaceuticals, and AngloDynamics.
Wednesday 13th July
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will announce its latest interest rate decision. After wrongfooting investors last August when the RBNZ failed to raise rates as expected, it has made up for lost time. It was one of the first developed world central banks to start hiking, and has raised rates at every meeting since then, taking its Official Cash Rate up to 2.0% from 0.25%. The consensus expectation is that it will add another 50 basis points this time round as well. There’s a rash of second order data from the UK including Construction Output, Manufacturing Production, and Industrial Production. From the Euro zone there’s German Final CPI. We also have a rate decision from the Bank of Canada (BOC). The BOC is expected to raise rates by 50 basis points to 2.0%. But the biggest data release of this week, if not the month, is the US Consumer Price Index (CPI). Last month there was widespread shock when Headline CPI jumped to +8.6% from +8.3% previously. Not only was this its highest reading in forty years, but it also showed that inflation had not yet peaked. Major earnings reports include Western Alliance Bancorp, Delta Air Lines, BancFirst Corp, National Bankshares, and Fastenal.
Thursday 14th July
Overnight we get the latest update on Australia’s unemployment situation. We also have Revised Industrial Production from Japan and there’s a French Bank Holiday. From the UK we have the Bank of England’s Credit Conditions Survey, and from Canada we have Manufacturing Sales. From the US we have another inflation measure in the form of the Producer Prices Index (PPI), and Weekly Unemployment Claims. Key earnings reports come from JP Morgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, Charles Schwab, First Republic Bank, and Conagra.
Friday 15th July
There’s a stack of Chinese data releases overnight including GDP, Retail Sales, Fixed Asset Investments, Industrial Production, and the Unemployment Rate. Then we have the Euro zone Trade Balance and German Preliminary GDP. From Canada we have Wholesale Sales and Foreign Securities Purchases. But Friday’s big release is US Retail Sales. Following this we have the Empire State Manufacturing Index, Import Prices, Capacity Utilisation, Industrial Production, Business Inventories, Consumer Sentiment, and Inflation Expectations. Today’s major earnings come from Citigroup, Wells Fargo, State Street, US Bancorp, BlackRock, Bank of New York Mellon, PNC Financial, and UnitedHealth Group. So, plenty to keep an eye on as we head into the new week.
David Morrison is an Analyst with Trade Nation. Trade Nation was set up with the specific remit to help customers realise their trading goals by changing the way they engage with the financial markets. As well as providing full transparency and making sure all customers get a fair deal, Trade Nation is fully regulated. This means customers can be confident they’re getting the trading experience they deserve. Visit www.tradenation.com to find out more
