- UK employment data set to show buoyant jobs market
- FOMC meeting minutes could offer fresh clues over tightening monetary policy
- German PPI has potential to fuel retail price inflation fears
Tuesday
The latest updates on the UK jobs market will be released on Tuesday. Key numbers to watch here include the headline UK Unemployment Rate for June, tipped to fall from 4.8% to around 4.4%, whilst Average Earnings again for June are expected to show further strong growth. A print close to 8% on an annualised basis is being forecast, something that will at least partly offset inflationary worries. As we’ve noted previously however, there’s a risk that these figures are still masked by the government furlough scheme, which is currently being tapered.
Preliminary Eurozone Employment Change data for the second quarter is also set to be published on Tuesday, and this number can expect to be under close scrutiny. The print has been comparatively stable since the start of the year, although with vaccine roll outs continuing and economies reopening, there may be a degree of disappointment if we don’t see at least another modest uptick here.
US Retail Sales for July are also due and this number has shown some marked volatility of late. Stimulus cheques have bolstered confidence on occasion, although on the basis that there will be no feel-good impact of Joe Biden’s $1 trillion infrastructure bill in this reading – we’ll have to wait a while for that to trickle down – this number could see a return to negative territory after June’s 0.6% uptick.
Wednesday
Wednesday sees the release of UK Inflation data for July, and amidst ongoing concerns that the current spike here may not be quite as transitory as policymakers would like, expect the reading to be closely followed. Anything much above the 2.5% printed in July could heap pressure on the Bank of England to reign in consumption, especially if wage inflation remains upbeat. Sterling could therefore be in focus.
On Wednesday evening, the Federal Reserve will publish the latest FOMC Meeting Minutes. Although there are some signs that US Inflation may have peaked, there’s potential for further upside to be seen here as the benefits of the infrastructure bill start to be felt. With that in mind, expect the narrative here will again be under scrutiny. Current expectations are that it’s still going to be well into 2022 before the Fed looks to raise borrowing costs but other forms of monetary restraint, namely through tapering the bond buying program, are expected to deployed sooner. Any clues over the timing of this could bolster the US Dollar.
Friday
UK Retail Sales for July will be published on Friday. After an initial spike in April’s print as non-essential retail reopened, the annualised figure has come off quite sharply, printing 9.7% in June. Some suggestions are that consumers have focused spending on hospitality, but if this is the case then some kind of plateauing would now be expected. A marked decline here however is likely to raise questions over consumer confidence and indeed the prospects for economic growth in the latter part of the year.
Finally, German PPI data for July is out and the annualised figure is set to move higher once again. Expectations are for a number above 9% to come in, up from the 8.5% posted in June. At least part of that is going to have to be passed back to consumers so if the employment data earlier in the week disappoints then this could be added cause for concern, with company profitability set to be hit, too.
