- Another US holiday
- Euro zone Manufacturing and Services
- UK inflation data
Monday 20th June
The US exchanges are closed for the Juneteenth National Independence Day. Despite that, James Bullard, a voting member of the US Federal Reserve’s FOMC, will be offering up his thoughts on interest rates and inflation during a speech in Barcelona, Spain. Overnight we see the release of the UK’s Rightmove House Price Index. For now, the trend in the data remains downward. Then we have German PPI and the German Bundesbank’s Monthly Report. We will also hear comments from Bank of England MPC members Jonathan Haskel and Catherine Mann. For the first quarter earnings season, today’s top reports come from Acasti Pharma, China Online Education, and Korn Ferry.
Tuesday 21st June
The day starts with the release of minutes from the last Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) monetary policy meeting. This was where Reserve members voted to raise the headline Cash Rate by 50 basis points, rather than the 25 basis points expected. That was the second consecutive meeting when the RBA has taken markets by surprise by being more hawkish than expected. From the UK we have CBI Industrial Order Expectations, and more chatter from Bank of England MPC members in the form of Huw Pill and Silvana Tenreyro. Later in the day we have Canadian Retail Sales and then Existing Home Sales from the US. FOMC Loretta Mester is due to speak at 17:00 BST. Significant earnings reports include La-Z-Boy Inc, Lennar Corp, and Winnebago Industries.
Wednesday 22nd June
Overnight we have the minutes from the last Bank of Japan (BOJ) monetary policy meeting. The BOJ continues to keep monetary policy loose, in contrast to other developed world central banks. This is having a disastrous effect on the Japanese yen which continues to decline. From Australia we have the MI Leading Indicator. Then we have the latest UK inflation update with the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI), Retail Price Index (RPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI). Last month, headline CPI jumped to 9.0% year-in-year from 7.0% previously. If we see a similar leap this time round, then the UK will be in the unenviable position of having an inflation rate in double figures. We have Canadian CPI followed by Euro zone Consumer Confidence. Swiss National Bank (SNB) Chairman Thomas Jordan will speak. This comes in the wake of last week’s surprise 50 basis point rate hike from the SNB. Following this we have the first day of testimony from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell before the Senate Banking Committee in Washington. First quarter earnings reports come from HB Fuller Company, Carnival Corp, Progress Software Corp, and KB Home.
Thursday 23rd June
Overnight we have Flash Manufacturing and Services PMIs from Australia, as well as Japan’s Manufacturing PMI. From the UK we have Public Sector Net Borrowing. We have another batch of Flash Manufacturing and Services PMIs. These come from France, the UK, and Euro zone. But the most important duo come from Germany, the manufacturing powerhouse at the heart of Europe. Last month we saw German Services come in below expectations, while Manufacturing came in better-than-expected. But it remains the case that German Manufacturing continues to decline after peaking in March 2021. Then we have the ECB’s Economic Bulletin. From the US we have Weekly Unemployment Claims. These have come in above 200,000 for a few weeks now but continue to hover around historical lows. Also, from the US we have their Flash Manufacturing and Services PMIs, Weekly Crude Oil Inventories and Bank Stress Test Results. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will deliver his second day of testimony in Washington, this time before House Financial Services Committee. Today’s major earnings reports include Rite Aid Corp, Smith & Wesson Brands Inc, BlackBerry, FedEx Corp, Darden Restaurants, and Paychex Inc.
Friday 24th June
To round off the week from the UK we have the GfK Consumer Confidence survey, and Core CPI from Japan. Later that morning we have Retail Sales from the UK. Then we have the German ifo Business Climate Survey. This is yet another data set which has been trending lower since last summer, although the last two readings have both surprised to the upside, suggesting an improvement in sentiment amongst Germany’s business leaders. We’ll hear more from Bank of England MPC members Huw Pill and Jonathan Haskel. From the US we have New Home Sales along with the Revised University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations.
