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The UK, US and the Eurozone in the week ahead

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  • Fed’s preferred inflation measure
  • FOMC meeting minutes
  • Reserve Bank of New Zealand rate decision

Monday 23rd May

It’s a light start to the week in terms of economic data, and the releases are all second division in terms of importance. We kick off with the UK’s Rightmove House Price Index and finish with Retail Sales from New Zealand. In between we have a Bank Holiday in Canada, Germany’s Bundesbank monthly report while Eurogroup meetings take place throughout the day. Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey takes part in a panel discussion in Vienna. Monday’s main earnings releases come from Sonida Senior Living, Gilat Satellite Networks, XPeng and Zoom Video.

Tuesday 24th May

Things pick up a touch today with Flash Manufacturing and/or Services PMIs from Australia, Japan, France, Germany, the Euro zone, the UK, and US. Out of all of these, it’s probably the German numbers which will be the prime focus. Germany is the Euro zone’s biggest economy, and it is the European Central Bank (ECB) which has been particularly opaque when it comes to providing clues over the likelihood and timing of monetary tightening. The Services component of the German economy has picked up a touch since the beginning of the year, despite the disruption caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The Services PMI remains comfortably above 50, indicating expansion. The Manufacturing PMI is also indicating expansion. But this number continues to trend lower since hitting a multi-year high of 66.0 in March last year. It is now down to 54.1 which is a concern given Germany’s importance as one of the world’s most important manufacturers. We also have the latest update on the UK’s Public Sector Borrowing Requirement, and EU ECOFIN meetings. From the US we have New Home Sales and the Richmond Manufacturing Index. There are no significant earnings reports due today.

Wednesday 25th May

Overnight the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will announce its latest interest rate decision. Last month it surprised most analysts when it hiked rates by 50 basis points to 1.50%. The consensus forecast was for a 25 basis-point rise. The RBNZ has now raised rates by 125 basis points since the end of last summer, taking its Official Cash Rate up to its highest level since June 2019. It last surprised commentators back in August last year when it kept rates unchanged at 0.25%. The market had expected a rise of 25 basis points. From Germany we have Import Prices, final GDP, and the GfK Consumer Climate Survey. Then we have the ECB Financial Stability Review and Swiss Economic Expectations from Credit Suisse. From the US we have Durable Goods, Crude Oil Inventories, and minutes from the last FOMC meeting when the Federal reserve raised rates by 50 basis points – the biggest single rise in 22 years. First quarter earnings reports come from Superior Gold, NVIDIA, and Snowflake.

Thursday 26th May

There are market holidays across parts of Europe for Ascension Day. We have Retail Sales from Canada and from the US we have Preliminary GDP, Weekly Unemployment Claims, and Pending Home Sales. Thursday’s major earnings reports include Alibaba Group, Medtronic, Build-A-Bear Workshop, Jack-in-the-Box, Farfetch and Costco Wholesale Corp.

Friday 27th May

Overnight we have Japan’s Tokyo Core CPI and a Retail Sales update from Australia. Then there’s Private Loans and M3 Money supply for the Euro zone. FOMC-voting member James Bullard is due to take part in a panel discussion in Tokyo. Mr Bullard has been notably hawkish of late. He speaks just ahead of the latest update of the US Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index for April. This measures the change in the price of goods and services purchased by US consumers, excluding food and energy. It also happens to be the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure. Some say, rather cynically, it’s because it significantly understates inflation when compared to other indices such as Consumer Prices. But in the current environment the US central bank will be hoping that the index shows signs of topping, which would give them an indication that the recent acceleration in price rises may have peaked. Later, we have US Personal Income, Personal Spending, Wholesale Inventories, Inflation Expectations, Consumer Sentiment, and the Treasury Currency Report. Mimi’s Rock announces its earnings.

Have a good weekend.

David Morrison is an Analyst with Trade Nation. Trade Nation was set up with the specific remit to help customers realise their trading goals by changing the way they engage with the financial markets. As well as providing full transparency and making sure all customers get a fair deal, Trade Nation is fully regulated. This means customers can be confident they’re getting the trading experience they deserve. Visit www.tradenation.com to find out more

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This article does not constitute investment advice. Do your own research or consult a professional advisor.

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