- Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment to soften although unlikely to cause any concern
- China PPI number in focus as this is likely to impact inflation globally
- FOMC meeting minutes to reveal latest thoughts on timing of rate hikes
Tuesday
Tuesday morning sees the release of UK Construction PMI data for June. After three successive months of printing above 60, this number is expected to ease slightly with forecasts suggesting a reading of around 59 will be seen. A slight slowdown here is likely to be welcomed as overheating in the sector will be adding to inflationary pressures, something that is clearly proving to be a growing concern amongst policymakers.
Eurozone Retail Sales for May will also be issued on Tuesday and there’s an expectation that the month-on-month reading will snap back into positive territory after April’s foray into the red. As economic reopening continues and vaccination rates pick up, this number should be sustained, bolstered by inflationary pressures the fact that employment is now rising slightly faster than expected.
Also, from the Eurozone the ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for July will be published. The forward-looking aspect of this print adds real value so weakness here could eclipse any positivity from that retail sales print. A reading slightly below June’s 81.3 is forecast and the market can probably tolerate that – it’s whether the downward trend accelerates through the summer as the seemingly inevitable next wave of COVID cases sweeps across the continent that will be of greater concern.
Wednesday
Wednesday’s focus will be across the Atlantic with the JOLT Job Openings figure for May again offering some insight, although the lag on this figure does diminish its worth. A modest contraction is expected from the April figure, but given these readings are quite literally off the scale right now, a slow down here would at least offer some respite to wage inflation.
The big news will arguably the be FOMC Meeting Minutes which are due for publication after European markets have closed for the day. The tone is turning increasingly hawkish over the central bank’s need to take action in a bid to tame inflation. The impact of this will be felt far and wide, but price pressures need to abate from current levels. Higher US rates mean a stronger greenback although for those UK companies earning in US dollars, that’s no bad thing.
Friday
The early hours of Friday morning will see the publication of Chinese Producer Price Index data for June. This is worth watching as higher input prices in what is arguably the world’s factory will have a trickle down effect elsewhere. This number is expected to come slightly below the 9% annualised figure which printed in May so failure to turn a corner here could rattle confidence again.
Rounding off the week we have the latest UK GDP data due for publication. Month-on-month indicators are probably the best guide here and estimates suggest the 2.3% seen in April will temper to something just over 1%. That’s OK, but with lost economic ground needing to be made up, anything much below this could cast a shadow over the pace of recovery that is actually being seen in the UK.
