With the unemployment rate falling to a fresh 11 year low of 4.8%, and the wage growth reading creeping up to 2.4% when bonuses are excluded, on the surface the most recent jobs figures seem to support the ostensible post-Brexit stability that has arisen in the last month or two.
However, the claimant count change numbers painted a different picture. The figure, which reflects how many people have signed on for unemployment benefits in the last month, arrived far higher than expected at nearly 10k new claimants. Not only this but the reading is the most up to date of the three key jobs metrics, covering October instead of July to September, suggesting that unemployment may be beginning to rise from its current lows. It was the prospect of this which seemed to be the main market-takeaway from this morning’s figures; the FTSE dropped 15 points, while the pound shed 0.4% against the dollar and 0.2% against the euro having previously been up against both before the jobs report was released.
Looking ahead to the US open and the Dow Jones is once again struggling to cement its post-18900 highs, with the futures suggesting the index will slink back 40 points after the bell. In terms of what will fuel the Dow this afternoon, beyond the continued election fallout there is the capacity utilization rate and industrial production readings, forecast to rise to 75.5% and 0.2% respectively.
