The US stock market has been remarkably volatile since October, with significant swings in either direction depending on the trading session.
At one level, in my view, this may reflect competing cross-currents of positive and negative economic trends.
On the plus side, corporate earnings have been pretty strong, climbing at a roughly 10% pace over the past 12 months.
The US economy also grew by a brisk 3.5% in the third quarter. On flip side, there’s the prospect of several more Federal Reserve interest rate hikes in 2019.
Another potential negative is the ongoing US-China trade sessions, though both sides appear to be taking a pause on tariffs to negotiate a new trade deal.
Another big uncertainty, in my opinion, is that the US stock market seems to lack a leadership sector heading into 2019. For the last few years, a fired-up technology sector, particularly the so-called FAANG stocks, have pulled up the broader market indexes.
Yet now, the stock prices of bellwethers like Facebook (FB), Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Netflix (NLFX)and Google (GOOGL) have retreated.
The tech sector has shed 10% of its value in the latest quarter through November 30. It is still up 7.6% on the year, but trails other sectors like consumer discretionary (+8.7%) and healthcare (14.7%).
Strong bull markets need strong sector leadership, and there may be a trading rotation in the works in my view.
That’s not to say there aren’t individual tech stocks still turning in amazing gains on the year.
Stocks such as chip-maker Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), heart device specialist Abiomed (ABMD), Netflix and Amazon are still up more than 40% on the year through November 30.
Investors are puzzling over whether the tech pull-back in the second half of 2018 is temporary blip or a sign of a big market leadership shift. The current bull market is long in the tooth, dating back to March of 2009.
So, in my opinion, it might be wise for investors to review their risk tolerance and portfolio strategies heading into 2019.
This material is from Interactive Advisors Asset Management and is being posted with Interactive Advisor Asset Management’s permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and IBKR is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.