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Home » News » Economics » The Week Ahead » The UK, US and the Eurozone in the week ahead

The UK, US and the Eurozone in the week ahead

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  • Summer is over; volumes to pick up?
  • US closed for Labor Day on Monday
  • Key ECB interest rate decision on Thursday

Monday 5th September

The US and Canada are closed for Labor Day on Monday. Then we see a series of OPEC (The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries) and OPEC-JMMC (Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee) meetings in Vienna. These are attended by representatives from the 13 OPEC members and 11 other oil-rich nations. The latter includes Russia but excludes the US. The West is coming under great political and economic pressure due to soaring energy costs. But so far, all attempts by leaders such as Joe Biden and Boris Johnson to persuade Saudi Arabia and its neighbours to raise production have been rebuffed. Throughout the day we’ll see a string of second order economic data including Australian Job Advertisements, Commodity Prices, and Retail Sales. From China we have the Caixin Services PMI, and from Switzerland we have GDP. Then we have Services PMIs from Spain, Italy, France, Germany, the Euro zone, and the UK. Also, from the Euro zone we have the Sentix Investor Confidence survey, and Retail Sales. Today’s earnings announcements include Centogene and Dynagas.

Tuesday 6th September

First up there’s the British Retail Consortium’s Retail Sales Monitor. Then we have Average Cash Earnings and Household Spending from Japan. There’s the latest monetary policy decision from the Reserve Bank of Australia. The RBA has raised rates at every meeting since May, taking its key Cash Rate up to 1.85% from 0.10% in April. Further rate hikes can’t be ruled out. Later in the day we have German Factory Orders, and the UK’s Construction PMI. From the US we have the ISM Services PMI. The biggest earnings releases today include Coupa Software, and Korn Ferry.

Wednesday 7th September

We start off with Australian GDP, China’s Trade Balance, and Leading Indicators from Japan. From the Euro zone we have German Industrial Production, Italian Retail Sales, Euro zone Employment Change and Revised GDP. Today’s main event is the rate decision from the Bank of Canada (BOC). The BOC’s key Overnight Rate is the same as the US Federal Reserve’s fed funds rate, with both standing at 2.50%. There are speeches from US Federal Reserve FOMC members Loretta Mester, Lael Brainard and Michael Barr. Major earnings reports come from American Eagle, Casey’s General Stores, GameStop, and NIO.

 Thursday 8th September

There’s yet another major rate decision, this time for the European Central Bank (ECB). The ECB is well behind other major central banks when it comes to raising its headline interest rate. The Main Refinancing Rate sits at just 0.50%, which is one of the main reasons why the euro is so weak against the US dollar. This is despite soaring inflation across the economic area. The ECB must steer monetary policy in such a way to help all its member states. This is proving to be impossible given the economic diversity across the Union. The latest headline Harmonised index of Consumer Prices for the whole of the European Union came in at +9.8% annualised for the 27 countries. But the Baltic states, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, have rates of 23.2%, 21.3% and 20.9% respectively. Meanwhile, Malta and France both have rates of 6.8%, which, while considerably lower, are still more than 3 times the ECB’s target rate of 2%. The current speculation is that the ECB will announce a significant rate increase at this meeting, possibly as much as 75 basis points. But whether that helps lift the euro or not is another matter. The statement will be released at 13:15 BST, and ECB President Christine Lagarde will begin her press conference at 13:45 BST. US Weekly Crude Oil inventories will be released at 16:00 BST. Key earnings reports come from American Outdoor Brands, and Smith & Wesson.

Friday 9th September

The day kicks off with the latest update on Chinese inflation. Then we have French Industrial Production and UK Consumer Inflation Expectations. This is also the first day of the EU’s Economic Summit. Rounding things off, there’s Canadian Unemployment Data, and US Wholesale Inventories. Earnings are from ABM Industries and Kroger.

Economic Calendar

Please note this article does not constitute investment advice. Investors are encouraged to do their own research beforehand or consult a professional advisor.

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