- Data-packed week, with inflation in focus
- Rate decisions from US, UK, EU, and Swiss central banks
- Services and Manufacturing PMIs also feature
Monday 12 December
Ahead of the holiday season, this week brings a host of important economic events and data releases. But Monday sees a clutch of second order numbers, kicking off with the UK’s Rightmove House Price Index, Japan’s Preliminary Machine Tool Orders, and Germany’s Wholesale Prices Index (WPI). Then we have UK GDP, Construction Output, Goods Trade Balance, Index of Services, Industrial Production, and Manufacturing Production. From the US we have the Federal Budget Balance. Earnings come from Dynagas, Value Line, and Oracle.
Tuesday 13 December
Overnight we have Australian NAB Business Confidence. Then there’s French Final Private Payrolls. From the UK we have the Claimant Count Change, Average Earnings Index, and Unemployment Rate. We have Swiss SECO Economic Forecasts, Italian Industrial Production, together with ZEW Economic Sentiment surveys from Germany and the Eurozone. From the US we have the latest inflation update in the form of the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Last month, this came well below expectations, triggering a sharp rally in risk assets and a fall in the US dollar. The hope is that CPI will indicate further moderation in the pace of US inflation, particularly as this update comes one day ahead of the Federal Reserve’s latest interest rate decision. Today’s earnings include Angold Resources, and ASP Isotopes.
Wednesday 14 December
Overnight we have Revised Industrial Production from Japan. Following this we have an update on UK inflation with CPI, along with the Producer Prices Index (PPI), and Retail Prices Index (RPI). Last month, Headline CPI, which includes food and energy, rose by 11.1% in the 12 months to October 2022, up from 10.1% in the previous month, making it the highest annual CPI inflation rate in this series of statistics which began in January 1997. There are concerns that last month’s record could now be broken. Later we have Eurozone Industrial Production, US Import Prices, and weekly Crude Oil Inventories. But the most widely anticipated event, not just this week but for this month, is the US Federal Reserve’s FOMC rate decision, together with its accompanying statement, quarterly Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), and subsequent press conference from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. The probability of a 50-basis point rate hike stands at around 75%, up from around 40% before we saw that unexpected dip in CPI in early November. Recent comments from Jerome Powell appeared to support this view that the Fed would hike rates less aggressively, having raised then by 75 basis-points at each of the last four meetings. But all eyes will be on the SEP where individual FOMC members forecast the Fed Funds rate, inflation, unemployment, and GDP for the next few months, and longer term as well. Main earnings reports include Lennar, and Planet Labs.
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Thursday 15 December
We start the day early, with important Australian data in the form of the Employment Change, Unemployment Rate, and MI Inflation Expectations. Then from China we have Fixed Asset Investment, Industrial Production, Retail Sales, and the Unemployment Rate. Then the Swiss National Bank will announce any changes to its key Policy Rate, along with its Monetary Policy Assessment and press conference. The Policy Rate currently stands at 0.50%, having been negative until the last meeting in September. The only major central bank with a lower headline rate of interest remains Japan. Following this, we have a rate decision from the Bank of England, where another increase is expected given the high rate of inflation across the UK. And straight after this, the European Central Bank will also announce its latest update to monetary policy. Its Main Refinancing Rate currently stands at 2%, up from zero in June this year. Again, the ECB is expected to raise rates, with the current odds favouring a 50 basis-point hike, rather than the 75 basis-points previously forecast. From the US we have a stack of data which includes Retail Sales, the Empire state Manufacturing Index, the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, weekly Unemployment Claims, Capacity Utilisation, Industrial Production, Business Inventories, and TIC Long-Term Purchases. Earnings include Jabil, and Adobe.
Friday 16 December
Rounding off a busy week we have the UK’s GfK Consumer Confidence survey, Retail Sales, and Japanese Flash Manufacturing PMI. In fact, it’s a big day for PMI numbers, always considered the most forward-looking of all data releases, with Flash Services and Manufacturing PMIs from France, Germany, the Eurozone, the UK, and the US. We also have confirmation of Eurozone CPI, along with the Trade Balance. There’s also the release of the Bank of England’s Quarterly Bulletin. Today’s earnings include Winnebago, Accenture, and Darden Restaurants.
David Morrison is an Analyst with Trade Nation. Trade Nation was set up with the specific remit to help customers realise their trading goals by changing the way they engage with the financial markets. As well as providing full transparency and making sure all customers get a fair deal, Trade Nation is fully regulated. This means customers can be confident they’re getting the trading experience they deserve.
