- US earnings season accelerates
- European Central Bank rate decision
- More US inflation data
Monday 24 October
Yesterday brought updates on Australian Flash Manufacturing and Services PMIs. Today we have them for France, Germany, the Euro zone, UK, and the US. Each piece of PMI data comes from surveys of hundreds of purchasing managers. Each respondent is asked to rate business conditions across employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories. The ‘Flash’ number is a leading indicator of economic health as businesses react quickly to market conditions, and their purchasing managers hold perhaps the most up-to-date insight into the overall economy from the corporate point of view. Many of these readings have now dipped below 50 indicating contraction in these sectors. Later in the day, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will be speaking in New York. Today’s earnings announcements include CSB Bancorp, Helix Energy, and Teradyne.
Tuesday 25 October
Overnight we have the Bank of Japan’s Core Consumer Price Index (CPI). Then we have the German ifo Business Climate survey, and the CBI’s Industrial Order Expectations from the UK. From the US we have the S&P/Case Shiller Composite House Price index, the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence number, and the Richmond Manufacturing Index. It’s a big day for earnings, with the most significant being Centene, Coca-Cola, Biogen, Raytheon, GE Company, Halliburton, 3M, PulteGroup, UBS, General Motors, Alphabet (Google), Microsoft, Chipotle, Juniper Networks, Texas Instruments, Visa, and Spotify.
Wednesday 26 October
Overnight sees the release of Australia’s CPI. Then there’s Credit Suisse’s Economic Expectations. From the Euro zone there’s the M3 Money Supply and Private Loans. Later, the Bank of Canada will announce its latest monetary policy decision. Then we have Wholesale Inventories, Goods Trade Balance, New Home Sales and weekly Crude Oil Inventories from the US. Major earnings reports come from Hilton, Hess, Harley Davidson, Kraft Heinz, Boeing, Ford, Meta Platforms (Facebook), Teladoc Health, PCB Bancorp, and Twitter.
Thursday 27 October
The day begins with the release of Australian Import Prices. Then there’s Germany’s GfK Consumer Climate survey, Spanish Unemployment, and the UK’s CBI Realised Sales. We then have a rate decision from the European Central Bank (ECB) followed later by a press conference hosted by ECB President Christine Lagarde. The ECB continues to struggle to get a grip on inflation, particularly as prices are rising at different rates across the continent. Recent statements have suggested that the ECB has a terminal rate for its key interest rate of 2.25%. That’s well below the US Federal Reserve’s target of 4.6% (and that could be revised up following the recent CPI number). Currently, the ECB’s Main Refinancing Rate stands at 1.25%. Again, this is well below other key interest rates, with the Fed’s at 3.25% and even the Bank of England’s at 2.25%. This is despite inflation rates around, or approaching, 10%. From the US we have Advance GDP for the third quarter. The US has already posted two back-to-back quarters of negative growth indicating a technical recession. Then we have Durable Goods and weekly Unemployment Claims. Key earnings reports come from S&P Global, Southwest Airlines, NetScout, T-Mobile, Northrop Grumman, AutoNation, McDonald’s, Caterpillar, Merck, Altria, Travelzoo, Mastercard, Shopify, Amazon, Intel, Apple, and Capital One.
Friday 28 October
From Japan we have the latest Unemployment Rate, and Tokyo’s CPI. There’s also a rate decision and Monetary Policy Statement from the Bank of Japan. Then we have GDP and CPI updates from several countries across the Euro zone. There’s Canadian GDP, and the week rounds off with US Personal Income, Personal Spending, Pending Home Sales, Consumer Sentiment, Inflation Expectations. But the big number is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation number, Core PCE. The hope is that we’ll finally see evidence that inflation may have peaked after months of false hope. Earnings come from Peabody Energy, Chevron, Colgate-Palmolive, NextEra, Royal Caribbean, AbbVie, Roku, Exxon Mobil, Etsy, and Lyft.
David Morrison is an Analyst with Trade Nation. Trade Nation was set up with the specific remit to help customers realise their trading goals by changing the way they engage with the financial markets. As well as providing full transparency and making sure all customers get a fair deal, Trade Nation is fully regulated. This means customers can be confident they’re getting the trading experience they deserve. Visit www.tradenation.com to find out more
