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The UK, US and the Eurozone in the week ahead

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  • Quiet week following Fed rate decision
  • Italian Parliamentary Election
  • Update on US inflation

Monday 26th September

The Italian Parliamentary Election is to be held on Sunday 25th September and there will be an attempt to form a government. Overnight we have the UK’s Rightmove House Price Index, and Japanese Flash Manufacturing PMI. Later, there’s the German ifo Business Climate survey and a speech from Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel. There are several more speeches from central bankers, including ECB President Christine Lagarde, and Federal Reserve FOMC members Susan Collins, Silvana Tenreyro, and Loretta Mester. Today’s earnings announcements include AGM Group Holdings, Republic First Bancorp, and Monarch Mining.

Tuesday 27th September

German Retail Sales are released first thing, followed by Euro zone M3 Money Supply and Private Loans. From the US we have Durable Goods, New Home Sales, the Richmond Manufacturing Index, the S&P/Case Shiller Composite House Price Index, and the Conference Board Consumer Confidence number. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is due to participate in a panel discussion about digital currencies at an event in Paris. Tuesday’s most significant earnings releases include BlackBerry, Heritage Cannabis, and Vitality Products.

Wednesday 28th September

Overnight we have the British Retail Consortium’s Shop Price Index. Then we have minutes from the last Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meeting, and Australian Retail Sales. Later this morning there’s the German GfK Consumer Climate survey. Not only has the survey been negative since November last year, but it has dropped sharply over the last six months. It is a measure of financial confidence, and a leading indicator of consumer spending which accounts for most of German economic activity. Consequently, the poor numbers show the problems faced by the German economy, and consequently the Euro zone overall. From Switzerland we have the Credit Suisse Economic Expectations survey. Again, this remains deeply negative, and investors will be hoping that the trend may soon reverse. From the US we have the Goods Trade Balance, Wholesale Inventories, Weekly Crude Oil Inventories and Pending Home Sales. We’ll also hear from FOMC member James Bullard. Major earnings reports come from Cintas Corp, Jeffries Financial, Paychex, and Vail Resorts.

Thursday 29th September

From the euro zone we have German Preliminary CPI, and Spanish Flash CPI. From the UK we have the M4 Money Supply, Mortgage Approvals, and Net Lending to Individuals. We have the latest monthly update on Canadian GDP, and from the US we have Final GDP, and Weekly Unemployment Claims. FOMC member Loretta Mester will speak again. Key earnings reports come from Rite Aid, Bed, Bath & Beyond, Carmax, Nike, and Micron Technology.


Friday 30th September

Overnight sees the release of the Japanese Unemployment Rate, along with Preliminary Industrial Production, Consumer Confidence, Housing Starts, and Retail Sales. From Australia we have Private Sector Credit, while from China there’s the Manufacturing PMI, Non-Manufacturing PMI, and Caixin Manufacturing PMI. From the UK there’s the Current Account, Final GDP, Revised Business Investment, M4 Money Supply, Mortgage Approvals, and Net Lending to Individuals. We have Swiss Retail Sales and the KOF Economic Barometer, while from the Euro zone there’s German Unemployment, Italian Unemployment, Italian CPI, and Euro zone Unemployment, and Flash CPI. Last month, Headline CPI hit +9.1% year-on-year, its highest level on record. This persistent increase in prices persuaded the European Central Bank (ECB) to raise its key interest rate by 75-basis points at its September meeting, with hints of further hikes to come. The ECB’s Main Refinancing Rate now stands at 1.25%, its highest level since November 2011, but still a long way below key rates in both the US and UK. From the US we have Personal Income, Personal Spending, Consumer Sentiment, Inflation Expectations, and the Chicago PMI. But the headline data release for this week is the Core PCE Price Index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure. If this follows the last CPI update and ticks higher, then it is another indication that US inflation has yet to peak.

Economic Calendar

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