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The UK, US and the Eurozone in the week ahead

  • Markets return to normal after Thanksgiving
  • Another US inflation reading
  • US Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday

Monday 28 November

US markets are back to normal now following last week’s extended Thanksgiving break. Overnight we have Australian Retail Sales with German Retail Sales expected later this morning. From the Euro zone we have the M3 Money Supply and Private Loans. Then we have CBI Realised Sales from the UK, the Canadian Current Account, and speeches from European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde, and US Federal Reserve FOMC member John Williams. Japanese Retail Sales and Unemployment are released later tonight. 

Tuesday 29 November

The day kicks off with the release of Swiss Gross Domestic Product (GDP) followed by a Consumer Price Index (CPI) update from Spain. From the UK we have Mortgage Approvals, the M4 Money Supply, and Net Lending to Individuals. There’s also a speech from Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) Member Catherine Mann. Later, we have Canadian GDP, and from the US there’s the S&P/Case Shiller Composite-20 House Price Index and the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence survey. 

Wednesday 30 November

Overnight we have the release of the British Retail Consortium’s Shop Price Index along with Australian Building Approvals, Construction Work Done, and Private Sector Credit. From China there are the Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMIs. Then we have French Consumer Spending, Preliminary CPI, and Preliminary GDP. There’s also German Unemployment, the Swiss KOF Economic Barometer, and the Credit Suisse Economic Expectations survey. There’s also a speech from MPC member Huw Pill. From the Euro zone we have the latest inflation update with Flash CPI. This has come in above expectations every month since July 2021, with just one exception in April this year.

The last update on Headline CPI, including food and energy, was +10.6%, well above expectations, and up from 9.9% in the prior month. This was also the highest Euro zone CPI reading on record. This is putting enormous pressure on the ECB to accelerate its programme of monetary tightening. The ECB’s Main Refinancing Rate stood at zero in June this year. It now stands at 2%. But it lags well behind US Fed Funds at 4% and even the UK’s base rate of 3%. We then have a pile of data releases from the US, including Preliminary GDP, the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, JOLTS Job Openings, Wholesale Inventories, Chicago PMI, Goods Trade Balance, Pending Home Sales, and weekly Crude Oil Inventories. US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is expected to deliver a about the economy and labour market at 18:30 GMT.

Thursday 01 December

From Australia we have Commodity Prices and Private Capital Expenditure, while from China we have the Caixin Manufacturing PMI. This is followed by Swiss CPI. Then we have Manufacturing PMIs from Switzerland, Spain, France, Germany, Italy, the Euro zone, the UK, and the US. We also have Euro zone Unemployment, and OPEC meetings. From the US we also have Challenger Job Cuts, weekly Unemployment Claims, Personal Income, Personal Spending, Construction Spending, and Total Vehicle Sales. But the main release is Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) which is the US Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure. Investors will be hoping that, like the most recent CPI update, it comes in below expectations, adding weight to the argument that US inflation has peaked, and will now fall back to the 2% target. 

Friday 02 December

Overnight we have Australian Retail Sales, and Japanese Consumer Confidence. Then there’s another speech from ECB President Christine Lagarde, the German Trade Balance, the French Budget Balance, Spanish Unemployment, and Euro zone Producer Prices (PPI). We round off the week with US Non-Farm Payrolls. These continue to show remarkable resilience, regularly coming in above market expectations despite other evidence of a slowdown in US economic growth. But in a world where good news is bad, and vice versa, strong payroll data has resulted in negative investor sentiment. This is because investors feel that the low US unemployment rate is encouraging the Federal Reserve to continue to tighten monetary policy aggressively. But could things be about to change, as the US tech giants, including Meta Platforms, Amazon and Twitter, announce significant layoffs cumulatively adding up to many tens of thousands?

David Morrison is an Analyst with Trade Nation. Trade Nation was set up with the specific remit to help customers realise their trading goals by changing the way they engage with the financial markets. As well as providing full transparency and making sure all customers get a fair deal, Trade Nation is fully regulated. This means customers can be confident they’re getting the trading experience they deserve. 

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This article does not constitute investment advice. Do your own research or consult a professional advisor.

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