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Home » News » Economics » The Week Ahead » The UK, US and the Eurozone in the week ahead

The UK, US and the Eurozone in the week ahead

  • US Non-Farm Payrolls dominate the agenda
  • Quiet start to week – UK Bank Holiday
  • Euro zone inflation update

Monday 29th August

We start the week with an update on Australian Retail Sales while the UK markets are closed for the August Bank Holiday. Today’s earnings announcements include Akoustis Tech, and Pinduoduo.

Tuesday 30th August

There’s plenty of data due out today covering a range of countries, but most is second order. The exceptions come in the afternoon when we have updates on US CB Consumer Confidence and JOLTS Job Openings, along with the S&P/Case Shiller Composite-20 House Price Index. Before this we have Japanese Unemployment, Australian Building Approvals, the Swiss KOF Economic Barometer, Spanish Flash CPI, and German Preliminary CPI. From the UK we have the M4 Money Supply, Mortgage Approvals, and Net Lending to Individuals. FOMC member John Williams is expected to speak at 16:00 BST. The biggest earnings releases today include Baidu, Best Buy, Big Lots, Chewy, Hewlett Packard, and Smith & Wesson.

Wednesday 31st August

Again, it’s mostly a day of second order economic releases. But exceptions come from the latest Euro zone Flash CPI Estimate and the US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change. As far as the former is concerned, the Euro zone is suffering from an ever-growing inflation rate like everyone else. But there is a large disparity between members of the currency bloc which is making it difficult for the European Central Bank (ECB) to steer a course when navigating between pricing pressures and raising interest rates. At the beginning of 2021, inflation as measured by headline CPI, including food and energy, was negative on a year-on-year basis. July’s number came in at +8.9%, the fastest rate of price increases on record. Yet the ECB has so far lagged other central banks in raising rates and this has contributed to continued weakness in the single currency. The US ADP Employment report comes ahead of Friday’s official Non-Farm Payroll report. The ADP continues to be a rotten predictor when it comes to the latter, and last month’s data was a textbook example. The ADP Payroll came in at +128,000 – well below the 295,000 expected. Yet Non-Farm Payrolls rose by 528,000 – more than double the 250,000 expected. The news confirmed that the US is close to full employment despite this year’s GDP data showing a definite economic slowdown and a ‘technical’ recession. Later in the day we have Canadian GDP, along with the Chicago PMI and weekly Crude Oil Inventories from the US. Major earnings reports come from Barnes & Noble, and Designer Brands.

Thursday 1st September

Overnight we get Capital Spending and the Final Manufacturing PMI from Japan. Then there’s Australia’s Private Capital Expenditure and China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI. We have Swiss CPI. Retail Sales, and Manufacturing PMI, while there’s Manufacturing PMIs from Spain, Italy, France, Germany, the Euro zone, and the UK. From the US there’s Challenger Job Cuts, weekly Unemployment Claims, the ISM Manufacturing PMI, Construction Spending, and Wards Total Vehicle Sales from the US. Key earnings reports come from Broadcom, Campbell Soup, Ciena, ClearSign Tech, Hormel Foods, Lululemon, Signet Jewellers, and Weibo.

Friday 2nd September

We kick off with the German Trade Balance, French Government Budget Balance, Spanish Unemployment, and Euro zone Producer Prices (PPI). Then we have the latest US Non-Farm Payroll update (see comments on Wednesday) followed by Factory Orders. Last month’s stronger-than-expected payroll data meant that all the jobs lost during the pandemic in 2020 have now been made back. The US Unemployment Rate also improved, falling back to 3.5% which is equal to a 50-year low. As noted above, this is positive news given the slowdown in economic growth. But there are concerns that it is underpinning inflation, even as wage growth lags, while some economists expect a deterioration in the jobs data to show through soon.

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