- Q4 – heading towards year-end
- Rate decisions from Australia and New Zealand
- US Non-Farm Payrolls
Monday 03 October
We have some Japanese data overnight including the Tankan Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing Indices, and the Bank of Japan’s Summary of Opinions. There are Bank Holidays for Australia and Germany, while Chinese markets are closed for the whole week. From the Euro zone we have the French government’s Budget Balance. We also have updates on Manufacturing PMIs from Spain, Switzerland, Italy, France, Germany, the UK, the Euro zone, Canada, and the US. Also, from the US we have Construction Spending and Total Vehicle Sales. Today’s earnings announcements include Integrated Media Technology Inc.
Tuesday 04 October
From Japan we have the year-on-year Monetary Base and Tokyo’s Core CPI. From Australia we have ANZ Job Advertisements and Building Approvals. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will also announce its latest rate decision. The RBA has raised rates at each of its last five meetings, taking its key Cash Rate from 0.10% to 2.35%. The big question is whether it will now pause to assess progress so far, or continue to tighten? It is still behind the US Federal Reserve where rates currently stand at 3.25% and are expected to increase again this year and next. RBA Governor Philip Lowe has said that further tightening is likely but will be guided by the incoming data. Later today we have Spanish Unemployment and a meeting of European finance ministers. From the US we have JOLTS Job Openings and Factory Orders. Tuesday’s most significant earnings releases include SMART Global Holdings and NovaGold Resources.
Wednesday 05 October
The day kicks off with the release of Australian Retail Sales. There’s then a rate decision from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ). After surprising markets in August last year by NOT raising rates, the RBNZ were still quick off the blocks compared to other significant central banks. They started raising rates in October 2021, taking their Official Cash Rate to 3% in August, just 25-basis points behind the US and Canada. Like the RBA, the question now is whether the RBNZ takes a pause now or continues to push harder to get inflation under control. Wednesday also sees the release of the German Trade Balance and French Industrial Production. We will also see Services PMIs from Spain, Italy, France, Germany, the Euro zone, the UK, and the US. From the US we also have the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, Trade Balance, and Weekly Crude Oil Inventories, while OPEC meetings take place throughout the day. Major earnings reports come from Helen of Troy, Lamb Weston Holdings, and Richardson Electronics.
Thursday 06 October
Overnight there’s New Zealand’s ANZ Commodity Prices and the Australian Trade Balance. Then we have German Factory Orders, the UK’s Construction PMI, Euro zone Retail Sales, and the Monetary Policy Accounts from the last European Central Bank meeting. From the US there’s Challenger Job Cuts and Weekly Unemployment Claims. Key earnings reports come from Conagra Brands, Constellation Brands, AngloDynamics, and Levi Strauss.
Friday 07 October
From Japan there’s Average Cash Earnings, Household Spending, and Leading Indicators. Then there’s the Swiss Unemployment Rate and Foreign Currency Reserves. We also have Germany’s Import Prices and Industrial Production, along with the French Trade Balance and Italian Retail Sales. Later in the day there’s Wholesale Inventories from the US and Canadian Unemployment. But the main event is the latest update on US Non-Farm Payrolls. These have held up quite well over the past few months, despite evidence of an economic slowdown across the US. But the Unemployment Rate edged higher last month and there are concerns that the jobs situation is likely to start to deteriorate. Certainly, the recent surge in bond yields followed comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell at the central bank’s September meeting. He was unequivocal when he said that the Fed would accept significant economic pain, including job losses, to get inflation under control. Higher interest rates lie ahead. The big question is how much damage rate hikes will do to future payroll readings. Today sees earnings from Tilray Brands and Rafael Holdings.
David Morrison is an Analyst with Trade Nation. Trade Nation was set up with the specific remit to help customers realise their trading goals by changing the way they engage with the financial markets. As well as providing full transparency and making sure all customers get a fair deal, Trade Nation is fully regulated. This means customers can be confident they’re getting the trading experience they deserve. Visit www.tradenation.com to find out more
