- US Congressional Elections
- US inflation update
- Earnings season continues
Monday 07 November
First, Daylight Savings Time comes to an end in both the US and Canada which means that we’re all back in synch with one another. Then we have an update on Australia’s ANZ Job Advertisements, followed by Swiss Unemployment and Foreign Currency Reserves. There’s the UK’s Halifax house Price index, German Industrial Production, the Euro zone Sentix Investor Confidence Survey and Eurogroup meetings. From the US there’s Consumer Credit. Today’s earnings announcements include Palantir, Choice Hotels, TripAdvisor, Unisys, Activision Blizzard, Lyft, SmileDirectClub, and Groupon.
Tuesday 08 November
Overnight sees the release of the British Retail Consortium’s Retail Sales Monitor along with Leading Indicators from Japan. Then there’s the French Trade Balance, French Payrolls, Italian Retail Sales, and Euro zone Retail Sales. But the main event is the US Congressional Elections, which give voters the opportunity to express their views on the first two years of the Biden Administration. Forecasts from earlier this year suggested that there would be a ‘Red Wash’ which would bring a swathe of Republicans into the House of Representatives and give them a comfortable majority in the Senate. But then in June the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, the key piece of legislation around abortion, and the Republican poll lead shrank. However, it now appears that the economy has returned as the number one issue for voters, followed by crime. This has led to a drop in support for the Democrats. It could take a while for the results to come through officially. But the markets are likely to react to exit polls, the first of which should come through once voting is over. Key earnings reports come from CRISPR Therapeutics, Planet Fitness, Lordstown Motors, Walt Disney, Occidental Petroleum, Nextdoor, and Lucid Group.
Wednesday 09 November
Overnight sees the release of Chinese inflation data in the form of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI). From Japan we have the Economy Watchers Sentiment survey. Later we have Wholesale Inventories and weekly Crude Oil Inventories from the US. Major earnings reports come from D R Horton, SeaWorld, Roblox, Whole Earth, CareMax, Rivian Auto, Bumble, Canoo, Wynn Resorts, Beyond Meat, and Coupang.
Thursday 10 November
Overnight we have MI Inflation Expectations from Australia, the UK’s RICS House Price Balance, and Japanese Machine Tool Orders. Then we have the European Central Bank’s (ECB) Economic Bulletin, Italian Industrial Production, and Economic Forecasts from across the European Union. From the US we have weekly Unemployment Claims, the Federal Budget Balance, and the FOMC Financial Stability Report. We also have speeches from several FOMC members. But the key data release is the latest US inflation update in the form of CPI. At the beginning of the summer the expectation was that the CPI would show signs of peaking. This would have encouraged the US Federal Reserve to take a less aggressive path to tighter monetary policy. But each monthly report, with the lone exception of July, came in hotter than expected, thwarting hopes that the Fed would decelerate its pace of rate hikes. Now all eyes are on this data, particularly following the latest 75 basis-point rate hike earlier this month, and Fed Chair Powell’s hawkish press conference. A big day for earnings includes updates from Ralph Lauren, Six Flags, WeWork, Duolingo, Compass, Aurora Cannabis, and US Foods Holdings.
Friday 11 November
There are partial closures for markets in France, the US, and Canada in observance of Armistice and Veterans’ Day. There is an update on German inflation with the publication of both the CPI and the Wholesale Price Index. Then we have an update on UK Gross Domestic Product, Construction Output, the Goods Trade Balance, Index of Services, Industrial Production, Manufacturing Production, and Business Investment. Meetings take place between European Union Finance Ministers. From the US we have Consumer Sentiment, Inflation Expectations, and the Treasury Currency Report to round off the week.
