UK: Data battles with Brexit for sterling’s attention
At the moment the pound is so precariously balanced it constantly feels just one bad headline away from (another) full-on meltdown. Given that is unlikely to change until this year’s dreaded All Hallows’ Eve, sterling will remain incredibly susceptible to the no-deal Brexit bluster of Boris Johnson and his cronies (especially Dominic Cummings).
That makes the processing of the week’s UK data – of which there is plenty – slightly tricky. Tuesday sees the latest jobs report, with wage growth – which has performed admirably of late, last coming in at 3.4% including bonuses – the main focus. Wednesday then has the inflation readings, the figure recently lurking around 2.0%, while Thursday sees the ever-volatile retail sales numbers.
For the FTSE, and to be fair the market as a whole, there is also the small matter of Wednesday’s Chinese data dump. The fixed asset investment, industrial production and retail sales readings will all be given a thorough going over in light of the recent trade war skirmishes, and could set the market-tone if any real surprises are thrown up.
UK: Stocks to watch
As for the earnings calendar, it’s not a particularly inspiring week. Balfour Beatty, Prudential and Admiral Group report on Wednesday, with GVC Holdings, Marshalls and KAZ Minerals on Thursday.
US: A September deadline for the US-China trade war
It won’t only be Wall Street fretting over the US-China trade war this week. The rapid escalation of the superpower-dispute engulfed the entire market at the start of August, be it alarming plunges or triple-digit rebounds. With September 1st acting as a new deadline – that’s when Trump’s latest round of tariffs on Chinese goods take effect – investors are going to be on high alert for updates from either nation.
Beyond that it is a busy week for US data. The inflation readings appear on Tuesday, followed by the import prices on Wednesday. Thursday’s then the most cluttered session, with retail sales, industrial production and Philly Fed and Empire State manufacturing indices dotted throughout the afternoon, before Friday wraps the week up with the buildings permits and housing starts figures.
Eurozone: Trade war and Data
Likely following the US markets wherever they go, it’s a pretty front-loaded week for the Eurozone. The ZEW economic sentiment readings on Tuesday will give further insight into the region’s ailing health, while there may be much hand-wringing following Wednesday’s German preliminary Q2 GDP number.
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