Good morning traders.
The eurusd ended the week just off its highs at around the 1.30 mark, about 30 pips short of the 200 day SMA and above the down sloping trend line from October of last year. This gives the pair the opportunity to press further up the charts particularly as the USDx looks under pressure from the threat of the Fed cutting up to 3 times in the next 12 months. This was further exacerbated by a big miss for NFP on Friday.
The first take on the ECB was less dovish than many had anticipated but sources out this weekend refer to the fact that rate cuts in the EZ could still be on the cards in case of worsening trade conditions and or the exchange rate getting to high. Another point worth a mention is that the longest rally in the eurusd this year was 260 pips before resuming its down trend.
If we get the same with this swing it would take us up to the 200 SMA. If we get past this level then 1.1450 looks to be a strong line of resistance up above.
Not much else to add to the macro picture this week as everything is contained within the Fed cut narrative and a possible weaker USD due to trade war tensions.
No data of any note is spiked for today and we have Germany and France on holiday.
The Day Chart
The range and the levels are clear as is the trendline and the 200 SMA as noted above.
The Hour chart
Levels as per
I´ll be watching for any retest of the 1.13 big fig and 1.1280 in the first instance.
Have a good one :).