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Mark Wogan: Non Farm Payrolls – Rip, Dip & Split

Good morning traders. As you are probably aware today is Non Farm Payrolls day, as is every first Friday of the month.

If you are aware of this then I suspect you also know that Non Farm Payrolls is not quite what it used to be! In that past it was the key economic event that helped to define the rest of the months trading as US jobs were top of mind when it came to figuring out the health and wealth of the US economy and thereby the relative strength and likely direction of the USD.

However, while its still got some impact it is not quite the bell weather it was mainly because we already know that the US is doing pretty well – just ask the President!

Ok I´m being a bit tongue in cheek. NonFarm Payrolls can´t be ignored. Its just that unless we get a big shock in either direction versus forecast, the jobs trajectory is pretty much priced into economic assets. So its impact is a little subdued right now.

Whats tended to happen over the past few months is that we get a flurry of activity around the time the data is released with a  ´rip´ up and a ´dip´ down before splitting the difference and settling back at where we started!

With this in mind it might be a good idea to trade any good levels this morning and then let the dust settle post the data. Maybe take the afternoon off 🙂

The EURUSD Charts

We didn’t get any further push south yesterday and the pair closed back just above the 1.15 level which is where we are as I write this morning. Tbh, I´m not sure we can read much into this and I will be more interested in where we close the week as this will give us a pointer of the likely direction.

EURUSD Daily Chart

EURUSD Hourly Chart

There is not much more I want to add for today other than to say don’t get sucked into any temporary volatility and stop running shenanigans this afternoon. Its best to let the dust settle first.

Have a great weekend and I´ll see you all bright and early Monday.

Please note: All opinions expressed above are from the author and not necessarily shared by The Armchair Trader. All financial investments involve an element of risk. The value of your investment may fall as well as rise and you may get back less than your initial investment. With Spread bets and CFDs your losses may exceed your deposits.

Mark Wogan

Hi. I started my investing / trading career in 2000 and since 2011 I have been trading on a full time basis.

My focus here will be the currencies and in particular the EurUsd pair and I will post my charts on a daily basis marking up the levels I´m interested in and comment on the bigger picture context and anything else I´ll be watching out for during the day.

I also do a little coaching on a one to one basis so if you´re interested in learning how to trade just give me a shout and we can have a quick chat.

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