If iron ore were meant to wilt under the weight of China’s cooling property market, geopolitical jitters and shifting industrial supply chains, it has so far refused to play along. Instead, the steelmaking ingredient enters 2026 in far ruder health than most analysts had pencilled in.
Prices have remained stubbornly above expectations, supported by stable steel output, measured increases in global supply and a seaborne market that, unfashionably for commodities, has stayed remarkably well-balanced.
A new consensus is forming among mining houses, traders and policymakers: this is not a speculative upswing fuelled by stimulus rumours or bearish forecasters capitulating en masse. Rather, iron ore appears to be settling into a structurally firmer price regime, shaped by supply discipline, infrastructure-led growth in emerging markets and an expanding premium for higher-grade ores.
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Such conditions, if sustained, would have consequences far beyond short-term margins for producers in Australia and Brazil.
Iron ore rices hold their ground
BMI, a research firm, expects benchmark iron ore to average US$97 a tonne in 2025 and US$95 in 2026, well above the long-run levels that dominated the 2010s. The elevated range reflects several intersecting forces. Steel production remains steady in China, India and Southeast Asia, even as China’s property downturn drags on. India’s and Vietnam’s construction booms are picking up some of the slack.
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