After two years of sugar-coated pain, chocolate producers are finally tasting relief. Cocoa prices, which soared to record highs earlier this year, have fallen by 51% in 2025, according to new analysis by trading platform eToro.
The collapse in prices has given confectionery firms some breathing space, and investors something to smile about. A basket of chocolate stocks, including Lindt, Hershey, Mondelez and Nestlé, has risen 14% so far this year, its strongest performance since 2021.
The numbers mask a story of endurance as much as recovery. Over the past year, confectionery shares have inched up just 2%, reflecting the lingering effects of last year’s extraordinary spike in input costs. Over a three-year horizon, the sector has barely moved, up a modest 2%. Yet over five years, chocolate equities have gained 18%, evidence of an industry that has navigated one of the most turbulent commodity cycles in decades without melting down.
Consumers still love their chocolate
Consumers, it seems, are reluctant to give up their small indulgences. In Britain, the consumer group Which? found that the average price of chocolate bars rose 14.6% in the 12 months to August 2025, yet demand held firm. That resilience is striking given the scale of the shock. Since 2020, cocoa prices had risen by 153%, fuelled by a series of harvest failures and export disruptions across West Africa, which supplies roughly three-quarters of the world’s cocoa beans.
That chocolate shares have held their ground through such volatility is testament to both operational discipline and the comforting psychology of confectionery. When times are tough, consumers may forgo foreign holidays and new cars, but they rarely abandon affordable treats.
“Chocolate makers are finally getting some breathing space as cocoa prices fall,” said Sam North, a market analyst at eToro. “Even after years of extreme cost pressure, the sector held up far better than expected. The data show that people may cut back on big luxuries, but they rarely give up small ones — and that’s helped keep chocolate stocks remarkably stable.”
Among the sweet-toothed quartet tracked by eToro, Lindt remains the standout. Its shares are up 30% this year, 22% over one year, 35% over three, and 57% over five. Hershey NYSE:HSY has gained 10% year to date and 27% over five years, though its one-year return is flat. Mondelez [NasdaqGS:MDLZ] is up 5% this year and 10% over five years, while Nestlé [SWX:NESN] has seen a patchier performance, rising 12% this year but down 22% over five.
Easing of cocoa prices offers scope for margin recovery
For investors, the easing of cocoa prices offers scope for margin recovery as the industry heads into its most lucrative quarter. The Halloween and Christmas seasons typically account for nearly a third of annual confectionery sales. The question is whether consumers, still bruised by years of inflation, will indulge as freely as before.
“This is an industry that’s proved remarkably resilient,” said eToro’s North. “Even when cocoa prices doubled, shoppers kept buying. Now the challenge is sustaining that resilience if sales volumes remain soft through Halloween and into the holidays.”
For now, the outlook is considerably sweeter. With input costs easing and sentiment improving, the world’s chocolate makers may find that 2025 ends not with a trick, but with a treat.
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