As sovereign debt balloons, inflation risk lingers, and institutional trust wanes, investors seek assets that protect purchasing power in an increasingly unstable monetary landscape. Traditionally, gold has played the key role of a durable store of value and common reserve asset. Today, however, bitcoin is emerging as a credible, decentralised alternative.
By Blake Heimann, Senior Associate, Quantitative Research, WisdomTree
A new scenario-based analysis explores how sustained expansion of global money supply could reshape the future prices of both gold and bitcoin, two commonly referred to ‘hard money’, or ‘store of value’, assets. In our base case forecast, bitcoin is projected to reach $250K and gold rises to $4,000 by the year 2030, with the potential for further upside in the case of escalated inflation and further fiscal irresponsibility.
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Three scenarios
The analysis models bitcoin and gold valuations under three distinct macroeconomic trajectories – a deflationary case, a base case, and an inflationary case – using a framework that ties their future value to projected global money supply. By forecasting money supply and referring to historical figures on how the total value of ‘hard money’ assets relates to the global money supply during various regimes, an estimate for the value of the ‘hard money’ basket of bitcoin and gold can be made. With an understanding of the future circulating supply of each asset, combined with assumptions of bitcoin’s growing share of this basket, future prices for bitcoin and gold are derived for each of the following scenarios.
- Deflationary Case: In this case, governments regain fiscal discipline and tighten monetary policy, resulting in slower money supply growth. This path echoes the disinflationary backdrop of the 1990s and early 2000s, and serves as a useful lower-bound anchor for valuation given the current environment.
- Base Case: This scenario reflects a continuation of current macro conditions: moderate inflation, modest real growth, and persistent monetary expansion. As liquidity increases, investors continue to allocate to scarce monetary alternatives like bitcoin, which continues to gradually gain share alongside gold.
- Inflationary Case: The final scenario is defined by entrenched inflation, persistent deficit spending, and a growing loss of confidence in fiat currencies. This scenario aligns with historical behaviour during episodes of monetary debasement, when investor demand for store of value assets rise significantly in response to inflation shocks. Adoption of bitcoin as a store of value alongside gold accelerates.
Forecasted Results
| Scenario | Asset | 2030 Price | 2030 CAGR | 2050 Price | 2050 CAGR |
| Deflationary Case | Bitcoin | $120K | 2% | $213K | 2.7% |
| Gold | $3K | –2% | $4.7K | 1.4% | |
| Base Case | Bitcoin | $250K | 18% | $658K | 7.4% |
| Gold | $4K | 3.7% | $9.1K | 4.2% | |
| Inflationary Case | Bitcoin | $500K | 35% | $1.9M | 12.1% |
| Gold | $5.5K | 11% | $18.8K | 7.2% |
Source: WisdomTree, June 2025. Cumulative average growth rate calculated using prevailing prices at time of writing, bitcoin $110,000 and gold $3,300 per oz. Forecasts are not an indicator of future performance and any investments are subject to risks and uncertainties.
Conclusion
This analysis frames bitcoin and gold as complementary hard monetary assets positioned to benefit from continued monetary expansion. If money supply grows in line with historical trends and investors reallocate toward scarce stores of value, both assets are poised for meaningful upside. In the base case, bitcoin reaches $250K and gold rises to $4,000 within the next 5 years. Under more inflationary conditions, valuations could exceed $500K for bitcoin and $5.5K per ounce for gold. With tightly constrained supply and increasing demand for monetary resilience, both assets offer differentiated roles in a diversified ‘hard money’ asset allocation.
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 | Core Physical Gold | Gold LON:WGLD / USD |    |
| Gold 1x Daily Short | Gold SBUL / USD |  |
| Gold 2x Daily Leveraged | Gold LBUL / USD | |
| Gold 3x Daily Leveraged | Gold 3GOL / USD | |
| Gold 3x Daily Short | Gold 3GOS / USD | |
| Physical Gold – GBP Daily Hedged | Gold GBSP / GBP | |
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This material is prepared by WisdomTree and its affiliates and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of the date of production and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by WisdomTree, nor any affiliate, nor any of their officers, employees or agents. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
