There was still quite a lot of market uncertainty in July. There was an increasing obsession with inflation, especially in the US, and how that might undermine asset prices. Many investors were hoping to see a surge in precious metals, but the gold price was simply not obliging.
A big theme in the US and indeed in the UK was a reopening of the economies in the wake of aggressive vaccination programs. This led more money into some sectors which were still depressed because of periodic lockdowns, while some other recovery stories started to look played out.
Live Nation Entertainment
Live Nation Entertainment [NYSE:LYV] was picked because it is a classic US recovery stock which was heavily sold down during the pandemic. Some 70% of its business is in fact in the US and UK. We felt that this summer would see a return to live events including concerts in both countries. The stock has already seen some big gains in value in Q1 and we also noted that the Saudi sovereign wealth fund has take a big 5.7% stake in the business (although John Malone’s Liberty Media remains the biggest shareholder).
Generac Holdings
Generac Holdings [NYSE:GNRC] was added on 16 July – we like its position within the power infrastructure market as a manufacturer of generators and energy storage systems. We expect it to be a beneficiary of demand from residential users for clean energy storage. The feeling here is that Generac could also do well out of the upcoming US infrastructure bill, currently making its way through Congress. Analysts were still largely bullish on the stock going into its 28 July reporting date.
Trainline
The third pick in July was Trainline [LON:TRN], which we entered at 338 with a target of 498. The share has taken an absolute hammering as the company relies on people moving around on buses and trains. Investors were concerned about the fact that the company was eating its way through its cash reserves, but with over 60% of the UK population double vaccinated in early July, we thought the case for more widespread commuting was going to pick up. We noted a number of fund managers seemed to be in agreement with us and were also increasing their holdings.
NIO
We decided to sell Chinese electric car play NIO when it fell below the $50 level on 7 July. It has already been a very profitable trade for us. There was quite a bit of back chat in the market in July around the future of Chinese tech stocks and Chinese government intervention in the tech sector. This seems to have led to some selling of NIO stock in the US. There has been some cooling of sentiment around Tesla too. We don’t think the EV story is over yet, but some of these stocks were looking slightly too expensive to warrant hanging onto them.
Here’s how our picks are performing
Tactical trading portfolio
These are shorter term equity and commodity trades which we can see playing out within one to three months. We will sometimes keep these on longer if the trade is still quite range bound but we are anticipating further upside. These trades have the tightest risk parameters.
| Company/Instrument | Start price | Current price* | Percentage change |
| Raytheon Technologies | 73.3 | 86.95 | +18.6% |
| Sosander | 15.8 | 33.5 | +113% |
| Lloyds Bank | 40.4 | 45.64 | +12.9% |
| Glencore | 272 | 323.55 | +19.0% |
| S4 Capital | 5.8 | 6.94 | +19.7% |
| Breakwave Dry Bulk Shipping | 30.14 | 25.8 | -14.4% |
| Bumble | 55.19 | 50.88 | -7.8% |
| Trainline | 338.6 | 338.4 | -0.1% |
*Prices as of close of play on 30th July 2021
Longer term buy and hold portfolio
These are positions where we see a longer term growth scenario, usually in the small to mid cap space, but sometimes larger companies. We will typically be keeping these stocks on the list for at least six months and often longer. Consequently our risk tolerance is higher for these positions than for the trading list.
| Company/Instrument | Start price | Current price* | Percentage change |
| Remedy Entertainment | 14 | 41.4 | +200% |
| Harvia | 8.86 | 61.4 | +593% |
| Yellow Cake | 211.50 | 281 | +32.9% |
| ITM Power | 260 | 410.2 | +57.8% |
| MTI Wireless | 47.0 | 69 | +46.8% |
| QT Group | 86.40 | 114.2 | +32.2% |
| Nordnet | 152.20 | 138.9 | -8.7% |
| The Panoply | 268 | 245 | -8.6% |
| First Rand | 5229 | 5436 | +4.0% |
| Kamux | 12.64 | 17.4 | +37.7% |
| Turkish Airlines | 13.86 | 12.73 | -8.2% |
| Generac Holdings | 430.34 | 419.36 | -2.6% |
| Live Nation | 81.78 | 78.89 | -3.5% |
*Prices as of close of play on 30th July 2021
Venture portfolio
These are companies which we see as having long term and considerable growth prospects. Due to their size and the nature of the business they are in, we feel that our normal risk management constraints should not be applied to these stocks.
| Company/Instrument | Start price | Current price* | Percentage change |
| Nano One | 1.13 | 4.1 | +263% |
| Pineapple Power | 3.25 | 7.75 | +138% |
| Taat Lifestyle & Wellness | 1.26 | 2.97 | +136% |
| Kodiak Copper | 0.24 | 1.41 | +488% |
| Rritual Superfoods | 0.80 | 0.62 | -22.5% |
| Brigadier Gold | 0.28 | 0.08 | -71.4% |
| Euro Manganese | 0.44 | 0.53 | +20.5% |
| Thunderbird Entertainment | 1.05 | 4.2 | +300% |
| Cypherpunk | 0.21 | 0.17 | -19.1% |
| ProStar | 0.89 | 0.53 | -40.5% |
| Tombill Mines | 0.23 | 0.2 | +13.0% |
| Wedgemount Resources | 0.50 | 0.55 | +10.0% |
| Minnova Corp | 0.35 | 0.22 | -37.1% |
| Red Moon Resources | 0.82 | 0.80 | -2.4% |
*Prices as of close of play on 30th July 2021
