- Chinese and US Retail Sales
- UK inflation update
- Major retailers round off earnings season
It’s another quiet week for data releases, dominated by US Retail Sales and UK inflation data. The first quarter earnings season comes to a close as big ‘bricks and mortar’ retailers report.
Monday 16th May
The week begins with updates on Chinese Retail Sales, Fixed Asset Investment, Industrial Production and Unemployment. Last month the Unemployment Rate came in at 5.8% which was above the 5.5% expected, and the highest level since June 2020. This is worth keeping an eye on. We’ll also see German Wholesale Prices, the German Bundesbank monthly report and EU Economic forecasts. From the US we have the Empire State Manufacturing Index and TIC Long-Term Purchases. Monday’s main earnings releases come from Acer Therapeutics, Baidu, Tencent Music and Macy’s.
Tuesday 17th May
First up are the minutes of the last Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) monetary policy meeting. This was when the RBA surprised the markets by hiking its key Cash Rate by 25 basis points to 0.35% from +0.10%. Analysts were anticipating a 15-basis point increase. We also get an update on the UK employment situation. The Claimant Count has fallen for 12 consecutive months now while the Unemployment Rate is at a one and a half year low. Average Earnings are also picking up thanks to tightness in the labour market. Last month they rose at a quarterly rate of 5.4% compared to the same period last year. This is adding to inflationary pressures. From the US we have Capacity Utilisation, Industrial Production and Business Inventories. But the main event is US Retail Sales, which should give investors some insight into the consumer mindset given current pricing pressures. Today’s key US corporate earnings reports come from Walmart and Home Depot.
Wednesday 18th May
Overnight we’ll see the latest update on Japanese GDP and Revised Industrial Production. We’ll also see Australia’s Wage Price Index and MI Leading Index. Later in the morning we’ll get the latest inflation update from the UK in the form of both the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Retail Price Index (RPI). Headline CPI, which includes food and energy, hit 7.0% year-on-year last month, which was its fastest rate of increase in thirty years. The European Central bank releases its Financial Stability Review, and we also get an update on Euro zone CPI. Canada also releases its latest inflation data, and we get Building Permits, Housing Starts and weekly Crude Oil Inventories from the US. First quarter earnings reports come from Cisco, Analog Devices, Shoe Carnival, TJX Companies, Hormel Foods, and Target.
Thursday 19th April
Overnight sees the release of Australian unemployment data. The Unemployment Rate has been trending downwards since hitting a post-pandemic peak of 7.5% in August 2020. Last month it came in at 4.0%, its lowest level since March 2008 just ahead of the Great Financial Crisis. The European Central Bank (ECB) releases the accounts of its last monetary policy meeting back in April. This was when it left its Main Refinancing Rate unchanged at zero. Unlike many other major central banks, the ECB is dragging its feet when it comes to tightening monetary policy. This is despite some deeply worrying inflation rates in some of its member states. For instance, Lithuania’s inflation as measured by the harmonised index of consumer prices comes in at 15.6% – double the average of all 27 EU members. From the US we have the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, Weekly Jobless Claims and Existing Home Sales. Thursday’s major earnings reports include Applied Materials, Palo Alto Networks, Apollo Investment, and Kohl’s.
Friday 20th May
It’s a quiet end to the week, at least in terms of economic data and earnings. Most of the economic data is second order and includes the UK’s GfK Consumer Confidence survey, Japan’s National Core CPI, New Zealand Credit Card Spending, German Producer Prices Index, and the Euro zone’s Consumer Confidence survey. The most important releases are UK Retail Sales and the US Treasury Currency Report. Corporate earnings come from Deere & Co and Foot Locker. But bear in mind that there are Australian Parliamentary Elections on Saturday which could affect the country’s equity and currency markets.
Have a good weekend.
David Morrison is an Analyst with Trade Nation. Trade Nation was set up with the specific remit to help customers realise their trading goals by changing the way they engage with the financial markets. As well as providing full transparency and making sure all customers get a fair deal, Trade Nation is fully regulated. This means customers can be confident they’re getting the trading experience they deserve. Visit www.tradenation.com to find out more
