The fate of Wall Street this week may rest less on Jerome Powell’s dovish hints and the next inflation print than on the quarterly results of a single company. Nvidia NASDAQ:NVDA, whose chips power the artificial intelligence boom, has become such a heavyweight in American equities that its earnings alone may sway the S&P 500 more than the Federal Reserve’s monetary pronouncements.
That is the argument of Nigel Green, chief executive of deVere Group, a financial advisory firm, who forecasts another “meet and beat” performance from the semiconductor giant. “The impact of Nvidia’s results on the S&P 500 Index will likely be greater than the effect of Powell hinting at September rate cuts or the Personal Consumption Expenditures index due Friday,” he says.
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Nvidia now accounts for more than 6.5% of the S&P 500 by market capitalisation, giving it disproportionate sway over the benchmark. Together with Apple NASDAQ:AAPL and Microsoft NASDAQ:MSFT, it makes up over 15% of the index.
Last year alone, Nvidia was responsible for more than a quarter of the index’s total gains. For a company that once toiled in the niche of graphics cards, this rise reflects its centrality to the AI revolution.
“NVIDIA is not just another stock”
The firm’s high-performance GPUs have become indispensable in training large language models, powering hyperscale data centres and accelerating computational workloads across finance, healthcare, logistics and defence. “Nvidia is not just another stock,” says Green. “It’s the engine of the AI economy. Its results are a bellwether not only for technology but for the direction of global equity markets themselves.”
Last quarter Nvidia reported revenues exceeding $26bn — more than triple the year before — driven largely by a 400% surge in data-centre sales. Analysts expect another increase this time round, but Green believes the market is underestimating Nvidia’s ability to surpass forecasts again.
The geopolitical backdrop is hardly straightforward. Washington has restricted exports of Nvidia’s most advanced chips to China, citing national security concerns. Negotiations continue over whether some restrictions might be eased or further tightened. Green remains sanguine. “Both sides have too much at stake to derail the AI supply chain,” he argues. “The rivalry between the US and China is delicate, but it doesn’t dampen demand. On the contrary, it underscores how vital Nvidia’s technology has become.”
“We are not in an AI bubble”
Sceptics warn that enthusiasm for AI stocks has all the hallmarks of a bubble. Nvidia trades at valuations that would make even dotcom veterans blanch. Yet Green dismisses the comparison. “We are not in an AI bubble,” he insists. “The spending on chips, infrastructure and software is not speculative froth. It is a structural investment wave that will continue into 2026 and beyond. This is transformative capital allocation, not a passing trend.”
Investors accustomed to parsing every Fed utterance may still prefer the certainties of policy guidance. At Jackson Hole last week, Powell’s dovish comments emboldened bets on a September rate cut. On Friday the PCE index is expected to confirm inflation has cooled further, with core PCE running at 2.6%, its lowest since early 2021. Yet Green contends that Nvidia’s report will matter more to markets than either.
The logic is straightforward. Technology stocks now comprise nearly 30% of the S&P 500. Their fortunes, amplified by Nvidia’s extraordinary rise, increasingly dictate the index’s trajectory. If Nvidia again beats forecasts, the effect on risk appetite, fund flows and valuations could ripple well beyond Silicon Valley.
“This is Nvidia’s market,” says Green. “Its earnings are the most important event for global investors this week, and likely this quarter.” A robust set of results, combined with further evidence of cooling inflation, could propel the S&P 500 to fresh highs. For once, a single quarterly earnings call may matter more than America’s central bank.
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