- US Federal Reserve rate decision
- Latest US Non-Farm Payroll update
- Bank of England monetary policy meeting
Monday 31 October
Daylight Savings Time ends across Europe which leaves the US out of synch for a week. Then, there’s a stack of second order data releases to kick off an important week. Overnight we have Retail Sales, Private Sector Credit, and the MI Inflation Gauge from Australia. From China we have Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMIs, and Consumer Confidence and Housing Starts from Japan. The most important release today is the Consumer Price Index (CPI) Flash Estimate for the Euro zone. This came in at -0.3% year-on-year in January 2021, with the European Central Bank (ECB) worried about persistent deflation. They needn’t have fretted as Euro zone inflation came in at an all-time high of 10% year-on-year last month. We’ll see if there’s any moderation this time round. But with the ECB still behind other developed world central banks on monetary policy, there’s unlikely to be a significant improvement, if any. There’s also German Retail Sales, and Import Prices, Italian Unemployment and GDP, Swiss Retail Sales and Euro zone GDP, and US Chicago PMI. Today’s earnings announcements include Global Payments, Avis Budget Group, PriceSmart, NXP Semiconductors, Arista Networks, and Loews.
Tuesday 01 November
Overnight there’s the latest monetary policy announcement from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). The RBA has managed to wrong-foot investors on several occasions over the last few months, and its last meeting was one such occasion. This was when it rose rates to 2.60% from 2.35% which was less than the 2.85% expected. We’ll see if they manage to flummox investors this time as well. Before that, China releases its latest Caixin Manufacturing PMI. It’s All Saints Day which means holidays across France and Italy. We get updates on Manufacturing PMIs for Switzerland, Canada, the UK and US. From the US we also have JOLTS Job Openings, which has taken on additional significance of late, due to a large fall last month. There’s also Construction Spending and Total Vehicle Sales. Key earnings reports come from Simon Property, Uber, Fox, Electronic Arts, Denny’s, AIG, Devon Energy, H&R Block, Coca-Cola, Airbnb, Yum China, Pfizer, and AMD.
Wednesday 02 November
Early on we have unemployment updates from Germany and Spain, Manufacturing PMIs across the Euro zone and the UK’s Construction PMI. From the US we have the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change which precedes Friday’s official Non-Farm Payroll update. There’s also weekly Crude Oil Inventories. But the main event is the latest rate announcement from the US Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The markets have been assigning a probability of close to 100% for a 75-basis point rate hike ever since the last CPI update failed to show that inflation had peaked. Such a move would take the key Fed Funds to an upper target of 4.0%, the highest level since December 2007. But there have been suggestions that the central bank may attempt to dial down expectations of further aggressive rate hikes for this year and beyond. If so, this could be an opportunity to offer investors some guidance, through both the accompanying statement, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s subsequent press conference. Major earnings reports come from Humana, CVS Health, Canada Goose, eBay, QUALCOMM, MGM Resorts, Roku, Zillow, Robinhood Markets, and Yum! Brands.
Thursday 03 November
There’s a Bank Holiday in Japan. We have the latest updates on Services PMIs for China, across the Euro zone, as well as the UK and US. Later, there’s Challenger Job Cuts, ISM Services PMI, Factory Orders, and weekly Unemployment Claims from the US. There’s also an interest rate decision from the Bank of England (BoE) which is widely expected to raise borrowing costs once again. Fortunately, this won’t be against a backdrop of an unruly gilt market as the confirmation of Rishi Sunak as Conservative Party leader, and therefore UK Prime Minister, has helped to calm investor concerns. A big day for earnings includes updates from Marriott International, Cigna, Barrick Gold, ConocoPhillips, Papa John’s, Restaurant Brands, Under Armour, Hyatt Hotels, Peloton, Shake Shack, Nikola, Kellogg, Crocs, Starbucks, Warner Brothers Discovery, Virgin Galactic, Expedia, PayPal, and Coinbase.
Friday 04 November
The RBA releases its latest monetary policy statement. We also have Australian Retail Sales. Later, we have German Factory Orders, French Industrial Production, French Private Payrolls, and Services PMIs from across the Euro zone. But the big release is US Non-Farm Payrolls. These came in pretty much in line last month. Yet the release triggered a dramatic sell-off across all risk assets in a move which saw US stock indices tumble. Rather than any disappointment over the headline payroll number, investors had panicked over a decline in the Unemployment Rate which fell to 3.5% from 3.7%, matching the pre-pandemic 50-year low. The thinking was that the US Federal Reserve was unlikely to take a pause in their programme of monetary tightening while the US jobs market looked so healthy. Let’s see what the latest numbers say. Earnings come from Cardinal Health, Duke Energy, DraftKings, Teekay Corporation, and AMC Entertainment.
David Morrison is an Analyst with Trade Nation. Trade Nation was set up with the specific remit to help customers realise their trading goals by changing the way they engage with the financial markets. As well as providing full transparency and making sure all customers get a fair deal, Trade Nation is fully regulated. This means customers can be confident they’re getting the trading experience they deserve. Visit www.tradenation.com to find out more
