After a stellar run in 2025, the outlook for key industrial and precious metals is shifting from one of broad-based optimism to a more complex and volatile mix of structural support and cyclical risk. Gold, silver and copper all enter 2026 with compelling long-term narratives, but investors may need to brace for choppier price action as macroeconomic, political and technological forces collide.
Gold, the traditional refuge in times of uncertainty, is expected to remain underpinned by powerful structural drivers next year. Yet replicating the strength of its 2025 rally may prove difficult. Volatility is already creeping back into the market as speculative positioning builds, raising the risk of sharper swings.
Safe-haven demand should remain resilient. Geopolitical tensions have not disappeared, trade uncertainty continues to cast a long shadow, and even where headline risks recede, they are unlikely to vanish entirely. Gold could also benefit if investor sentiment turns more defensive, a plausible scenario should concerns about an artificial intelligence bubble intensify or equity markets lose momentum.
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Macroeconomic conditions broadly favour the metal. Widening fiscal deficits across advanced economies continue to stoke fears of currency debasement, encouraging investors to seek alternatives to major fiat currencies. Ongoing efforts by some countries to reduce reliance on the US dollar further reinforce gold’s appeal, while central bank purchases remain a durable and largely price-insensitive source of demand.
The trajectory of US monetary policy will be crucial. The dollar could stay under pressure if the next Federal Reserve chair adopts a more dovish stance, aligning with President Donald Trump’s preference for easier financial conditions. However, there are limits to how far and how fast the Fed can move. Reflation risks may constrain aggressive rate cuts into 2026, potentially lending support to the greenback and weighing on gold prices. At the same time, safe-haven flows could moderate if trade policy uncertainty becomes more predictable or diplomatic efforts raise the chances of a truce in Ukraine.
The result is a less certain landscape. Gold is unlikely to lose its strategic relevance, but the smooth upward trajectory investors enjoyed may give way to a bumpier ride.
Silver’s dynamic proposition
Silver, by contrast, offers a different (and potentially more dynamic) proposition. The metal could once again outperform gold in 2026, largely because its fortunes are tied not just to macro sentiment but to the engines of the global economy. Alongside benefiting from dollar weakness and safe-haven flows, silver is deeply embedded in transformative growth themes.
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Its industrial uses span the AI boom and the global build-out of data centres, the clean energy transition, and applications such as photovoltaics and electric vehicles. Silver also plays a growing role in defence programmes as military spending rises worldwide. On top of this, the possibility of new trade levies under the Trump administration could provide near-term price support.
Yet silver’s outlook is not without fragility. Disruptive trade policies risk slowing global consumption, while mine output is expected to remain relatively steady. A rollback of green policies in the US and uncertainties around the pace of AI deployment could also weigh on demand. Structurally compelling though it is, silver’s short-term momentum may prove uneven.
What is the long term investment case for copper?
Copper sits somewhere between these two narratives. The long-term case remains strong: it is indispensable to electrification, clean energy, AI infrastructure and defence, and supply disruptions or tariff-related dislocations could keep markets tight. However, the copper market was in surplus in 2025, and that surplus could persist or even widen next year.
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Tariffs and policy uncertainty threaten to restrain global growth and industrial activity, while Trump’s agenda may deter cleantech investment and electric vehicle adoption. Copper enters 2026 with some of the strongest structural tailwinds in the commodities complex, but also with finely balanced risks.
For investors, the message is clear. The metals story is no longer one-directional. Structural demand remains powerful, but politics, policy and cyclical headwinds are back in play, making 2026 a year where conviction will need to be matched with caution.
Related ETFs
 | Copper | Copper LON:COPA / USD |    |
| Copper 3x Daily Leveraged | Copper LON:3HCL / USD | |
| Copper 3x Daily Short | Copper LON:3HCS / USD | |
| Core Physical Gold | Gold LON:WGLD / USD | |
| Gold 1x Daily Short | Gold SBUL / USD |  |
| Gold 2x Daily Leveraged | Gold LBUL / USD | |
| Gold 3x Daily Leveraged | Gold 3GOL / USD | |
| Gold 3x Daily Short | Gold 3GOS / USD | |
| Physical Gold – GBP Daily Hedged | Gold GBSP / GBP | |
| Physical Silver | Silver LON:PHAG / USD | |
| Silver 3x Daily Leveraged | Silver LON:3SIL / USD | |
| Silver 3x Daily Short | Silver LON:3SIS / USD | |
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